NHL Top Picks for Today (Back the Alberta Teams on the Road on Thursday, April 7)
We went 1-1-1 with my picks last night, but the one win was a +240 underdog as I correctly pointed out the Red Wings as being extremely mis-priced in their game against the Jets.
The big 'dog win gave us a 1.4 unit boost to our bankroll last night, so let's keep the momentum rolling tonight. Here are my three best bets for Thursday, April 7.
All odds listed are via WynnBET Sportsbook.
Maple Leafs vs. Stars Prediction and Pick
Betting on an UNDER in games involving the Maple Leafs seems completely ridiculous, but if there's a time for one to hit, it's tonight against the Stars.
Toronto is actually one of the better defensive teams in the NHL, ranking third in expected goals against over their last 25 games. The Leafs' issues have come from their goaltending, but now they face a Stars team that ranks 25th in the NHL in shooting percentage over their last 25 games. If there's a time for a Toronto netminder to have a good game, it's tonight.
Getting plus-money on an UNDER at 6.5 seems like a good bet to me.
Pick: UNDER (+115)
Flames vs. Sharks Prediction and Pick
I know that the Flames are on the second leg of a back-to-back in the middle of a California trip, but I don't care. They outmatch the Sharks by such a wide margin, that they could play short-handed all game and still give them a run for their money.
The Sharks rank in the bottom of the NHL in almost every advanced metric over their last 25 games. 31st in CORSI%, 32nd in expected goals per 60 minutes, 23rd in expected goals against per 60 minutes, and 30th in shooting percentage.
The fact that we can get +125 odds on the Flames puck line tonight is a gift that we shouldn't pass up.
Pick: Flames -1.5 (+125)
Oilers vs. Kings Prediction and Pick
As much as I think the Kings are underrated, they're struggling in a few key areas that make me concerned against a team that has as high-powered of an offense as the Oilers. Los Angeles ranks 31st in shooting percentage and 19th in team save percentage over its last 25 games. It's tough to win when you're struggling to find the back of the net, no matter how well you rank in advanced analytics.
It's going to be especially difficult when you have to try to keep pace with the Edmonton Oilers, who rank second in the NHL over the same stretch in expected goals per 60 minutes. The Oilers have also been accurate with their shots, ranking fifth in shooting percentage.
Even in advanced anayltics like CORSI percentage, the Kings only rank six spots high than the Oilers, which is not enough to offset the basic stats like shooting and save percentage.
Pick: Oilers -135
You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.