No. 15 North Carolina vs. Virginia Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 10

North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye (10)
North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye (10) / Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

North Carolina has emerged as a real threat in the ACC.

The Tar Heels, led by Mack Brown and Drake Maye, are 7-1, 4-0 in conference and two games ahead of Duke for first place in the ACC Coastal division. Unless disaster strikes down the stretch, they will be tuning up their dynamic passing offense for a showdown with Clemson in the ACC Title game. Last week, the Tar Heels took out last year’s ACC Champion, Pitt, 42-24.

Virginia is the complete opposite. 3-5 and 1-4 in the conference with one of the worst offenses in the sport. They will have to slow down UNC if they want to have a chance this week, because they have no hope in a shootout. The Cavaliers are coming off a 14-12 overtime loss to Miami in Week 9. 

North Carolina vs. Virginia Odds, Spread and Total

UNC and UVA Betting Trends

  • UNC is 5-3 ATS
  • UVA is 3-5 ATS
  • The Under is 6-1-1 in UVA games
  • UVA is 1-5 ATS in last six home games
  • Favorite is 5-1 ATS in last six meetings

North Carolina vs. Virginia Prediction and Pick

Other than when Virginia played Richmond and put up 34 points, the Cavaliers highest scoring performance was a 22-20 loss to Syracuse. Those were the only two games where they scored more than 17 points.

Brennan Armstrong is a talented quarterback, but he has nine interceptions and just six touchdown passes this season after throwing 31 touchdowns and just 10 picks last year. Armstrong still has his top receiving option from a season ago, Keytaon Thompson, but the passing game has fallen apart. It's a real shame because North Carolina allows the 11th most yards through the air in the country. 

Drake Maye is the best quarterback in the ACC and maybe the 3rd best in the country, behind CJ Stroud and Bryce Young. That is how good he has been as a redshirt freshman. Maye has thrown for 2,671 yards, 9.7 yards per attempt and is tied with Stroud for the most passing touchdowns with 29. He has only thrown three interceptions on his 275 attempts. Not to mention the three touchdowns he has run for. The UNC offense is far too high-powered for UVA to have a chance. 

Let’s put it this way, Virginia has scored 135 total points in eight games this year. North Carolina scored 154 in their first three games of the season. The Tar Heels have scored less than 30 one time. This will not be close. 

Pick: North Carolina -7.5 (-110)

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change