No. 20 Cincinnati vs. UCF Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 9

UCF Knights quarterback John Rhys Plumlee (10)
UCF Knights quarterback John Rhys Plumlee (10) / James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports

Talk about a backdoor cover. Cincinnati allowed 13 fourth quarter points last week to let SMU back into the game, but held on 29-27. That win moved the Bearcats to 6-1 and dropped SMU to 3-4. UCF had a tougher time last week as they fell to 5-2 with a 34-13 loss to East Carolina. 

Tulane is actually atop the AAC standings, but this is a matchup of top contenders in one of the most intriguing Group of Five conferences. 

Cincinnati vs. UCF Odds, Spread and Total

Cincinnati vs. UCF Betting Trends

  • Cincinnati is 2-4-1 ATS
  • UCF is 4-3 ATS
  • The under is 5-1 in UCF’s last six games
  • Home Team is 4-0 ATS in last four

Cincinnati vs. UCF Prediction and Pick

Cincinnati continues to win, but they’re doing it close to inferior teams in their conference. Rarely do you find a team that is 6-1 and in the top 20 with this bad of a record against the spread. Their defense is no longer dominant like they were a year ago. They are still No. 17 in the country in yards per game, but that is a far cry from top five and their offense has fallen off without Desmond Ridder. This Ben Bryant led attack is 45th in the country in total offense. 

UCF’s John Rhys Plumlee led unit is actually No. 6 in total offense. Last week, they couldn't get the run game going and JRP threw three interceptions against ECU. It was a bizarre performance and I wouldn’t expect a repeat of it this week. The dual threat Ole Miss transfer leads the Knights in passing and rushing yards, he is their entire offense and he’s been so good this year that I’m willing to write off that ECU disaster. 

I’ve been fading Cincinnati and it feels like they have been doing everything that they can to lose games. A four point win over 1-5 USF and a two point win over 3-3 SMU. UCF is better than both of those teams and I’ll take the Knights. 

Pick: UCF -110

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Game Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change