No. 21 Cincinnati vs. SMU Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 8
By Josh Yourish
The Cincinnati Bearcats and Luke Fickell might not be headed back to the playoff this year, but after a 28-24 win over South Florida two weeks ago, they are 5-1 and in the Top 25. The SMU Mustangs are 3-3 in their first year under Rhett Lashlee after Sonny Dykes left for greener pastures at TCU.
The Cincinnati defense isn’t the same this year with Sauce Gardner and Coby Bryant in the NFL and the SMU passing offense can really go. There could be an upset in the works, so let’s see what Vegas thinks about this one.
Cincinnati vs. SMU Odds, Spread and Total
SMU and Cincinnati Betting Trends
- SMU is 1-5 ATS
- Cincinnati is 2-3-1 ATS
- SMU is 4-2 to the under
- Cincinnati is 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games in October and last four road games
- Under is 6-0 in last six meetings
Cincinnati vs. SMU Prediction and Pick
Cincinnati escaped with a win at home over a 1-5 South Florida team before it went into their bye last week. Granted that USF team seems to keep every game close before finding a way to lose it, but that wasn’t the most inspiring performance. SMU on the other hand, put up 40 on Navy before a backdoor cover 40-34. Both teams will be rested after the Bearcats had a bye week and SMU played on Friday night.
Cincinnati isn’t really led by its defense this year like it was last season. The Bearcats have the 30th ranked defense in the country and the 21st ranked offense. That is a big change from the fifth ranked defense in 2021 and 11th ranked offense. We all knew this wouldn’t be the same Cincinnati team, but I think it's more vulnerable right now than most realize.
71% of the public money is on Cincinnati in this game even with the Bearcats as a road favorite. To me, this game comes down to Tanner Mordecai and Rashee Rice being better than anything Cincinnati has to offer on offense. Mordecai has thrown for over 2,000 yards and 15 touchdowns this season. Of those stats, 761 of those yards and four of those TDs have gone to Rice - who is averaging 15.5 yards per catch on very high volume.
The weakness of SMU is its run defense. If Cincy can keep pace, it’ll be with Charles McClelland. He has 502 yards and five touchdowns while averaging 6.6 yards a carry this season. He’s been dynamic, but if there is a good passing attack against a good rushing attack, I’ll side with the passing attack and the quarterback every time. Even if Cincinnati gets ahead, the Mustangs will never be out of it. That's why I like them to cover and maybe win outright.
Pick: SMU +3.5 (-110)
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change