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North Carolina vs Duke Updated Prediction and Odds for NCAA Tournament Final Four

By Reed Wallach

Mar 5, 2022; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Paolo Banchero (5), North
Mar 5, 2022; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Paolo Banchero (5), North / Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
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Arguably the two biggest rivals in college basketball will do battle for the the first time in NCAA Tournament history.

There's storylines all over this one with it being Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski's final NCAA Tournament and the team set to go against their arch rival, North Carolina, in the Final Four. This is historic, and we are in for a big game in the Big Easy.

Duke and North Carolina split the season series, with the road team winning the prior meetings, so how can we expect this one to go? Let's first check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook before giving out a best bet:

North Carolina vs. Duke Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • North Carolina: +4 (-110)
  • Duke: -4 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • North Carolina: +162
  • Duke: -190

Total: 151 (Over -110/Under -110)

North Carolina vs. Duke Prediction and Pick

While I was skeptical of Duke's prospects of making a Final Four run, we have seen them play at their absolute best, a level that can't be matched by the remaining field.

The Blue Devils never had to worry about talent, but they did have issues executing on both sides of the ball during the course of the season, but in wins over Michigan State, Texas Tech and Arkansas, we saw Coach K's team put it all together and look like the National Championship contender they were supposed to be.

As for this matchup, North Carolina has thrived by crushing foes on the offensive glass and from the perimeter. The Blue Devils have the size to match Armando Bacot on the glass and also allow the 51st lowest 3-point rate in the country. So, can the Tar Heels find offense inside? The team is 128th in 2-point percentage over the past month.

On the other side, I'm going to side with the overwhelming talent of Duke that can score both inside and out around Paolo Banchero. While Banchero has become a monster in isolations situations, leading to Duke becoming the No. 1 offense in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency rating, the play of Jeremy Roach and A.J. Griffin off of the likely top 3 pick will be huge as well. Roach has scored in double figures in all but one game this tournament (9 in the Elite 8 win over Arkansas) and dished out five assists twice. Roach has done a great job of facilitating the offense thus far, and the Blue Devils are posting the 13th highest effective field goal percentage since March 1st.

North Carolina loves to gang rebound and create second chances, but that can be a problem against a Duke club that can match the Tar Heels' size on the glass. If UNC fails to win on the offensive glass, the Blue Devils elite transition attack can take over.

Coach K's team is elite at finishing at the rim and can also generate second chances of their own with their size. Duke center Mark Williams is going to be key on Bacot on both sides of the floor, but I'm going to side with Duke's perimeter threats to outlast the outlier shooting of the Tar Heels during this tourney. The Tar Heels is shooting 35% from deep on 113 tournament 3-point tries.

I've hinted at it, but I like Duke to cover in this game. I see them as a team that has realized their potential, but also undervalued given the season long spreads this season.

The first meeting closed with Duke -3.5 on the road, and then -11 at home in Coach K's final home game that had some increased home court advantage factored in. Yes, UNC won that game, and went on a huge run in the tournament as a No. 8 seed, but how much are we upgrading the Tar Heels, and how much are we overlooking Duke's March success?

If you take out 4 points for home court from the last game between the two, you have Duke at -7. This game will be highly competitive between two conference foes, but I think the Blue Devils are being undervalued in the betting market given the closing spreads of the two teams and the ceiling of this roster compared to their arch rivals. I can see them pulling away at the free throw line late and covering.

PICK: Duke -4 (-110)

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