North Carolina vs. Miami Prediction and Odds (Time to Sell Hurricane's Offense)
By Reed Wallach
North Carolina travels to Coral Gables, Florida to face off against Miami in ACC action on Tuesday night.
The Hurricanes had their nine game winning streak snapped last week at Florida State, but do boast one of the best offenses in the country. On the other side, North Carolina has one of the most imposing frontcourts in the country, can the Tar Heels slow down the Hurricane's perimeter attack?
Here are the odds for this conference battle, per WynnBET Sportsbook.
North Carolina vs. Miami Odds, Spread and Total
Spread:
- North Carolina: -2.5 (-110)
- Miami: +2.5 (-110)
Moneyline
- North Carolina: -145
- Miami: +125
Total: 154 (Over -110/Under -110)
North Carolina vs. Miami Prediction and Pick
While Miami has been a powerhouse offense, I'm going to sell it against the length of North Carolina.
ShotQuality has the U's offense ranked 37th in the country adjusted for shot quality which is 16 spots lower than KenPom's offensive efficiency, signaling that they are scoring at unsustainable clip. North Carolina has been prone to getting gashed from the perimeter, but their elite defensive rebounding (top five in the nation) makes me confident they can limit the Hurricane's to one trip often.
On the other side, North Carolina is also shooting at a torrid clip, actually better than Miami from deep on a slightly lower clip. The Tar Heels are shooting nearly 40% as a team, but down to 36% as a team away from home. For reference, ShotQuality rates them as the 68th best offense and three games worse than their record.
With a total in the 150's, you need a lot to go right on offense. This total took money towards the under instantly, dropping from 158 to 154, and there is still one more point of value in my opinion on this one.
Miami is coming in with a week of rest so I do expect coach Jim Larranaga will have a sound game plan to combat the size of North Carolina down low, but I believe that we see some negative regression on the defensive end and this game being played in the 70's.
PICK: Under 154, play to 153