North Carolina vs. North Carolina State Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 13

North Carolina and NC State meet for the 103rd time on Saturday night.

Nov 11, 2023; Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA;  North Carolina State Wolfpack quarterback Brennan Armstrong
Nov 11, 2023; Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack quarterback Brennan Armstrong / Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

The North Carolina Tar Heels started the regular season on fire, going a perfect 6-0 through the first six weeks. 

However, as we got closer to Halloween, things started to get spooky for the Tar Heels as they dropped three out of their next five games, including two losses to UVA and Georgia Tech. The Tar Heels will try to wrap up the regular season on a high note as they will play in-state rival North Carolina State on Saturday night.

The No. 22-ranked North Carolina State Wolfpack started the season 4-3 but has played better recently, winning four straight games with two different QBs under center.

Heading into Saturday night’s game, the Tar Heels are 2.5-point road favorites despite losing the last two matchups against North Carolina State. Can Drake Maye lead UNC to its third win in the past five years over the Wolfpack? Or will NC State get the upper hand on UNC for another season?

Here are the odds and our best bet for North Carolina vs. North Carolina State:

North Carolina vs. North Carolina State Odds, Spread and Total

North Carolina State vs. North Carolina Betting Trends (UPDATE)

  • North Carolina is 6-5 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • The Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against North Carolina State
  • North Carolina State is 3-2-1 ATS at home this season
  • The UNDER is 4-1 in the Wolfpack’s last five games

North Carolina vs. North Carolina State How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, Nov. 25
  • Game Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Carter-Finley Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): ACC Network
  • North Carolina Record: 8-3
  • North Carolina State Record: 8-3

North Carolina vs. North Carolina State Key Players to Watch

North Carolina

Omarion Hampton: The sophomore running back had an outstanding performance in last week’s 11-point loss to Clemson. Hampton gashed the Tigers’ defense for 178 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries. Hampton has scored seven touchdowns in UNC’s last four games and averaged 161 rushing yards per game. The 6-foot RB will try to run for 100-plus yards for the seventh consecutive game on Saturday night.

North Carolina State

Brennan Armstrong: The senior quarterback is coming off solid back-to-back games against Virginia Tech and Wake Forest after not playing in the previous three games, where M.J. Morris was the starter. 

In last week’s win over the Hokies, Armstrong got it done with his arm and legs, completing 69.2% of his passes for 203 yards and two touchdowns. He also had 89 rushing yards and two scores on 21 carries. Armstrong must have a similar performance on Saturday night for the Wolfpack to win.

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North Carolina vs. North Carolina State Prediction and Pick

The Tar Heels have struggled on the road recently, losing their last two games to Georgia Tech and Clemson. North Carolina couldn’t stop the run as Clemson gashed them for 247 yards and three touchdowns, while Georgia Tech had 348 yards and two touchdowns.

It doesn’t matter what Maye or Hampton does on offense, especially if the defense cannot get a stop. The good news for UNC is that NC State is averaging 148.1 rushing yards per game this season (fourth-fewest in the ACC).

North Carolina State’s offense leaves much to be desired, as they only score 25.7 points per game this season. However, their defense has played well in their last four games, holding opponents to 14.2 points per game.

The Wolfpack won’t be able to hold UNC to only 15 points on Saturday, but if their run defense shows up (allows 102.5 yards per game), they have a good chance to pull the upset. NC State looks to be peaking at the right time, which is not great news for North Carolina. I’ll take the Wolfpack to win at home.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change