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North Carolina vs. Wake Forest Prediction and Odds for College Football Week 11 (Wake Offense Undervalued)

By Reed Wallach

Oct 8, 2022; Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA; Wake Forest Demon Deacons quarterback Sam Hartman
Oct 8, 2022; Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA; Wake Forest Demon Deacons quarterback Sam Hartman / Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports
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Things are quickly going sideways for Wake Forest, who's dropped two straight road games as favorites.

The Demon Decans return home to face an upstart North Carolina team that is all but certainly returning to the ACC Championship game behind the dynamic play of quarterback Drake Maye. With two potent offenses, what should we expect in this ACC showdown? Who can scrap together enough stops to get a win?

Let's break it down with the odds and some notable betting trends:

North Carolina vs. Wake Forest Odds, Spread and Total

North Carolina vs. Wake Forest Betting Trends

  • Wake Forest is 6-3 against the spread (ATS), but hasn't covered their past two
  • North Carolina is 2-0 ATS as an underdog
  • This is the first time both teams have a total north of 70 points
  • Since the start of the 2017 season, totals above 75 have gone UNDER at a 34-26-2 rate

North Carolina vs. Wake Forest Prediction and Pick

This total seems sky high, and it is, the highest of the season. However, it's nearly 80 for good reason, these are two of the most potent offenses in the country and neither defense has shown the ability to slow down strong offenses.

Wake is 20th in points per drive and 42nd in success rate. They are a pass heavy offense around veteran Sam Hartman, who is averaging nearly nine yards per pass attempt, the 14th highest mark in the country. He will be matched up against a North Carolina secondary that can't stop any passing game. The team is 126th in defensive success rate and have zero pass rush (outside the top 100 in sacks and tackles for loss).

Meanwhile, the UNC offense is as strong as any in the country, which has led to star quarterback Drake Maye to get some darkhorse Heisman mention. Maye and his favorite target, future NFL player Josh Downs, help lead the offense to more than three points per drive, the ninth highest clip in the country.

The Wake defense has gone from one of the worst P5 units last season to middling this season. Overall, the team has a formidable pass rush that is 17th nationally in tackles for loss and top 50 in yards per play allowed.

If either defense can get a stop, it's Wake Forest's group. I think that following untimely turnovers against Louisville and North Carolina State the past week, the offense should get back on track against a leaky UNC unit.

I think Wake hands North Carolina a road loss by getting just enough stops.

Track all of Reed's bets at Betstamp HERE!

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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