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North Florida vs. Austin Peay Prediction, Odds and Key Players for ASUN Quarterfinals (Take the Underdog Ospreys)

College basketball betting preview, prediction and best bet for North Florida-Austin Peay.

By Shelby Dermer

North Florida Ospreys guard Chaz Lanier (2) smiles after making a three-point basket.
North Florida Ospreys guard Chaz Lanier (2) smiles after making a three-point basket. / Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA
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Austin Peay ended the regular season on a tear, reeling off wins in seven of its last eight games following a 3-5 start to league play. The Governors boast one of the conference’s several high-scoring offenses and enter the ASUN quarterfinals as a small favorite against North Florida.

The Ospreys won three of their last five regular-season games, pulling away from Stetson on Friday to move over .500 (16-15) heading into the conference tournament. North Florida has been great as an underdog this season.

Can they pull off an upset or stay within the number in Tuesday’s quarterfinal? Here’s the betting breakdown of the matchup with a best bet. 

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North Florida vs. Austin Peay Odds, Spread and Total

North Florida vs. Austin Peay Betting Trends

  • North Florida is 16-12-1 ATS this season
  • Austin Peay is 16-11-1 ATS this season
  • North Florida is 10-4-1 ATS as an underdog this season
  • Austin Peay is 3-4-1 ATS as a favorite this season
  • The OVER is 15-14 in North Florida games this season
  • The OVER is 18-9-1 in Austin Peay games this season 

North Florida vs. Austin Peay How to Watch

  • Date: Tuesday, March 5
  • Game time: 8 p.m. EST
  • Venue: F&M Bank Arena
  • How to watch (TV): ESPN+
  • North Florida record: 16-15
  • Austin Peay record: 17-11

North Florida vs. Austin Peay Key Players to Watch

North Florida

Chaz Lanier: The fourth year North Florida guard is in his first season as a full-time starter and leads the Ospreys in scoring at 19.7 points per game, which ranks second in the ASUN. Lanier is shooting over 50% from the field this season and had 33 points in the previous matchup against Austin Peay. 

Austin Peay 

Sai Witt: The 6-foot-8 senior forward is averaging 12.3 points per game but has eclipsed that total in four consecutive games, scoring 20-plus in the last three. Witt has three double-doubles over the last six games, including a 25-point, 11-rebound performance last time out in the Governors’ overtime win over Bellarmine. 

North Florida vs. Austin Peay Prediction and Pick 

North Florida’s defense metrics in conference play is a far cry from its season-long numbers, where the Ospreys are one of the worst defenses in the nation (No. 299 overall), according to KenPom. North Florida is top-5 in the ASUN in defensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage, block percentage and defending 3-point shots. 

That’s good for a matchup against Austin Peay, which is No. 8 in the ASUN in scoring at 73.5 points per game and No. 7 in field goal percentage (44.4%).

On the offensive side of the ball, North Florida is the No. 1 two-point shooting team in the conference and faces an Austin Peay defense that is No. 329 in KenPom in defending shots from inside the arc. 

The Governors are No. 11 in the ASUN in effective field goal percentage and contain the perimeter well, leading in the league against 3-point shots with opponents hitting only 31.3% of their tries from downtown.

North Florida has been great as an underdog this season (10-4-1 ATS). Take them to hang around in their upset bid Tuesday night against the Governors. 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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