North Texas vs. SMU Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 11

Sep 23, 2023; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; SMU Mustangs quarterback Preston Stone (2) drops back to pass
Sep 23, 2023; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; SMU Mustangs quarterback Preston Stone (2) drops back to pass / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

SMU's journey to an AAC title game continues on Friday night against North Texas, but will the team have its starting quarterback?

Preston Stone has been fantastic this season for SMU but left the team's Week 10 win against Rice in the fourth quarter and his status is up in the air for this one on a short week. The team is still laying a massive number against a North Texas team that has one of the worst defenses in the country.

How should we handicap this one with injury news driving the handicap? I got you covered, but first, let me tell you about this exciting Caesars Sportsbook promotion. If you use the link below and sign up you will have your first bet matched up to $1,000! That's it!

North Texas vs. SMU Odds, Spread and Total

SMU vs. North Texas Betting Trends

  • SMU is 5-4 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • North Texas is 5-3-1 ATS this season
  • North Texas is 4-1-1 ATS this season as an underdog

North Texas vs. SMU How to Watch

  • Date: Friday, November 10th
  • Game Time: 9:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Gerald J. Ford Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
  • North Texas Record: 3-6
  • SMU Record: 7-2

North Texas vs. SMU Key Players to Watch

North Texas

Chandler Rogers: The UNT offense has been unlocked this season and Rogers has played a big role, passing for 2,323 yards with 21 passing touchdowns and four interceptions. Overall, this unit is top 25 in EPA/Play this season and Rogers has been a monster for this offense to offset a bottom 10 defense in terms of EPA/Play


Preston Stone: Stone has been excellent this season, but his availability is in question.

If Stone can go, the SMU offense should keep humming. He has passed for 2,223 yards with 21 passing touchdowns and added another three on the ground. Overall, this Mustangs offense is top 30 in the country

North Texas vs. SMU Prediction and Pick

After a dismal start to the season, North Texas has covered four straight before pushing the closing number against UTSA last week. Most of this is due to the team letting Rogers cook in Eric Morris' offense. The team is playing at a top-20 rate and is playing at an incredibly high level, rushing for over five yards per carry and averaging nearly three points per drive.

The offense is stellar, but the defense is a disaster, bottom five in EPA/Play, and is last in yards per carry allowed. While SMU runs an air-raid offense, the team has playmakers at running back in Jaylan Knighton and LJ Johnson Jr., who are each averaging more than five yards per carry.

SMU plays at a top 40 tempo as well so I expect plenty of possessions for each team and both teams to cook on offense. While SMU's defense grades out as a top 20 unit in terms of EPA/Play, North Texas' tempo lends itself to shootouts.

I'll take a chance on Stone being available for this one based on the early market movement and take the over in a projected shootout on Friday night.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!