North Texas vs. UTSA Prediction and Odds for Conference USA Championship Game (Value on Total)

The UTSA Roadrunners will look to make it back-to-back Conference USA titles on Friday night inside the Alamodome.

The Roadrunners have won nine straight games, including all of their conference games, to make the title game agaisnt the visiting North Texas Mean Green, who clinched their spot in this game with a win last week agaisnt Rice.

These two teams met earlier this season on the same field with UTSA winning 31-27 in a game that closed with the Roadrunners favored by 10 points and a total of 72.5. The line is a bit different in this rematch with a title on the line, here's how we are playing it:

North Texas vs. UTSA Odds, Spread and Total

North Texas vs. UTSA Betting Trends

• North Texas covered in the previous meeting, the game stayed under the total
• North Texas is 7-5 against the spread (ATS) this season
• North Texas has gone OVER in four of seven games as underdogs
• Since not covering against North Texas, UTSA has covered four straight games

North Texas vs. UTSA Prediction and Pick

UTSA needed a touchdown in the final 30 seconds to outlast North Texas at the end of October in a game that featured three touchdowns in the final three minutes.

Both teams play at a rapid pace, both checking inside the top 20 in terms of plays per minute, but the Roadrunners are able to shut down the run game, 11th in success rate allowed on the ground. This is a run-first North Texas team that has an incredible deep group of running backs that has withstood injuries all season long, three backs have more than 500 yards rushing on the ground.

In the first meeting, UTSA was able to shut down the run game, allowing just over one yard per carry, but they struggled with defending explosive passes, the bread and butter of the UNT pass game. Veteran quarterback Austin Aune isn't very accurate, but the team pushes the ball downfield, ninth in yards per pass attempt nationally, and it was no different against UTSA a few weeks back, completing 15-of-31 passes on 9.85 yards per attempt.

UTSA's defense wins on a down-to-down basis, top 50 in success rate, but is bottom 20 in explosive run and pass rate. They are vulnerable to chunk plays and that can be an issue against a Mean Green offense that thrives off of it. Not to mention, North Texas is top 20 in tackles for loss allowed as well as sacks, this offensive line is constantly winning at the line of scrimmage.

On the other side, expect veteran quarterback Frank Harris to continue to dominate. The Roadrunners are top 10 in terms of points per drive, averaging more than three per game and Harris is completing more than 67% of his passes.

North Texas defense is allowing six yards per play (104th in the country) and is bottom 20 in success rate.

This total has dropped more than five points from the prior game, but I believe that's too far of a shift. Both teams can take the top off the defense and the Roadrunners offense should be able to put up a big number on the scoreboard, they have scored at least 30 points in all CUSA games, including 40 or more in four of them.

I'll grab the over on the fast track of the Almaodome.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.