Northern Trust Odds & Predictions: Ball Strikers Will Find Success at Liberty National

The PGA Tour heads to the Northern Trust at Liberty National this week for the first round of the FedEx Cup playoffs!

The top 125 golfers in the FedEx Cup playoffs will compete, with the top 70 after this event advancing to the BMW Championship next week. The only golfer in the top 125 who will not be competing at the Northern Trust is Louis Oosthuizen, who withdrew due to an injury. Since he ranks 8th in the standings ahead of this week, missing the Northern Trust won’t hurt him much in the long run.

Odds to Win the Northern Trust

It should come as no surprise that Jon Rahm is set as the betting favorite to win this week’s event, but what may surprise you is that he’s only fifth in the FedEx Cup standings ahead of this week. This will be his first start since his T3 finish at the Open Championship, and also his first since having to withdraw from the Olympics due to a positive COVID-19 test.

Here are the top 20 golfers on the odds list at WynnBET to win the Northern Trust.

• Jon Rahm +850
• Jordan Spieth +1700
• Dustin Johnson +1750
• Collin Morikawa +1750
• Xander Schauffele +2000
• Brooks Koepka +2200
• Rory McIlroy +2200
• Bryson DeChambeau +2500
• Justin Thomas +2500
• Daniel Berger +3000
• Patrick Cantlay +3000
• Paul Casey +3000
• Scottie Scheffler +3000
• Webb Simpson +3000
• Abraham Ancer +4000
• Harris English +4000
• Viktor Hovland +4000
• Hideki Matsuyama +4000
• Cameron Smith +4000
• Sam Burns +5000

How to Handicap Liberty National

The Northern Trust rotates on a yearly basis between the New York City area and the Boston area, so don’t look at last year’s tournament standings for a feel of who will perform well this year. Last year the event was held at TPC Boston, this year Liberty National in Jersey City will be the host.

The event was held here in 2019, so that’s the primary event that we want to focus on when determining how to handicap the course.

Bombers will have little advantage this week, so we’ll be focusing largely on accuracy and strong iron play. As a Par 71 that runs 7,370 yards, there are three Par 5’s on the course, two of which will be reachable for most golfers.

To support my claim that iron play will be of utmost importance this week, nine of the top 11 players on the 2019 leaderboard finished inside the top 25 in strokes gained: approach that week.

Patrick Reed won the event that year, and he may be the perfect example of the type of golfer who will excel at Liberty National. Someone who has a solid iron game, while also being magical with a wedge and putter in his hand.

Finally, the course boasts a total of 98 sand traps, so stay away from golfers who struggle in sand.

Key Stats for the Liberty National

• Ball Striking
• Strokes gained: approach the green
• Approaches from 125-150 yards
• Sand save percentage
• Strokes gained: putting

Northern Trust Picks and Predictions

Collin Morikawa +1750

I held off ever betting on Collin Morikawa because of how streaky he is with his putter, but after his performance at the Open Championship, I’m rolling back on my strategy of not betting on guys who don’t rank near the top of strokes gained: putting.

This guy is truly in a league of his own when it comes to ball striking and iron play. He ranks first on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approach the green, averaging +1.395 per round. The next closest is Paul Casey at +0.917, which is a difference of 0.478.

To put that in perspective, there’s a bigger gap in this statistic between Morikawa and Casey, than there is between Casey and Talor Gooch, who ranks 36th in the stats at +0.446. Absolutely insane.

With this being an iron player’s course, you’d be nuts not to at least sprinkle a little bit on Morikawa at +1750.

Justin Thomas +2500

Justin Thomas hasn’t shown his best stuff recently, but I can’t pass up betting on him at +2500. He ranks third on the Tour in strokes gained: approach at +0.902, and he finished a solid T12 at the event last time it was hosted at Liberty National.

He also ranks second in approach shots that range from 125-150 yards, which will be a key distance this week.

If JT can figure something out with his flat stick, he should find success at a course that fits his style to perfection. It’s a value bet at 25/1 odds.

Cameron Smith +4000

Cameron Smith has been flirting with the winner’s circle recently. He finished one stroke back from a crowded playoff for bronze medal at the Olympics, and then a double bogey on the 72nd hole kept him out of a playoff at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational.

The Aussie is solid with his approach play (71st in SG: APP), but where the real magic happens is his short game. He ranks 29th in strokes gained: around-the-green, ninth in strokes gained: putting and he’s first on the PGA Tour in sand save percentage which will prove to be valuable at Liberty National.

Given how he’s played as of late, I love his value at +4000.

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