Northwestern vs. Penn State Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 5

Sep 24, 2022; Evanston, Illinois, USA; Northwestern Wildcats quarterback Ryan Hilinski (3) looks to
Sep 24, 2022; Evanston, Illinois, USA; Northwestern Wildcats quarterback Ryan Hilinski (3) looks to / David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

Penn State's pursuit of a New Year's Six Bowl bid continues in Big Ten play with a projected blowout victory.

The Nittany Lions are home for bottom feeding conference foe Northwestern as massive favorites. Penn State has looked the part of a Big Ten contender, but haven't started the difficult stretch of their season just yet with three fellow contenders in the coming weeks. Will this be business as usual in Happy Valley?

Let's break down the odds from FanDuel Sportsbook:

Northwestern vs. Penn State Odds, Spread and Total

Northwestern vs. Penn State Betting Trends

  • Northwestern is 59-45 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog under Pat Fitzgerald
  • Northwestern is 22-30 to the OVER as a road underdog
  • Penn State is 3-1 ATS this season
  • Northwestern hasn't covered in three straight games (all as favorites)

Northwestern vs. Penn State Prediction and Pick

This is a much more advantageous spot to back Northwestern rather than the past three weeks where they were favored. Fitzgerald is one of the best coaches in the sport as an underdog and this is a massive number for Penn State.

Penn State is about to head into a bye week and come out of it facing arguably the best three teams in the conference: Ohio State, Minnesota and Michigan State; is there going to be a big incentive to run up the score and win by essentially four touchdowns?

I also think the sell train on Penn State is leaving the station. For the second straight week they only slightly outgained their opponent, but rolled to a double digit win. Central Michigan committed four turnovers against PSU last week, leading to the lopsided score line of 33-14 (no cover for the Nittany Lions). With a similar spread for Penn State in this game, I don't expect them to run it up on a conference foe with interest in the future and maintaining their health.

Penn State has one of the highest turnover margins in the country and I'm not sure there will be enough incentive to win with this kind of margin in a conference game.

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