Notre Dame vs. Alabama Prediction and Odds For NCAA Tournament First Round (Fighting Irish Will Prevail)

Welcome to March! The No. 11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish toppled Rutgers in a double-overtime thriller in the First Four with a last-second bucket from Paul Atkinson Jr. They'll take on the No. 6 Alabama Crimson Tide in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament Friday at 4:15 p.m. EST.

The Fighting Irish were knocked out of the ACC Tournament by eventual champion Virginia Tech but have covered the spread in five of their last seven games behind a strong offense.

Alabama, meanwhile, has lost three straight, including to Vanderbilt in the SEC Tournament, and are a woeful 4-14 against the spread (ATS) over the last three months.

Can the Crimson Tide snap out of their slump and avoid an upset or will Notre Dame ride the momentum of a huge win to make it to the next round?

Let's check out the odds over at WynnBET to help us find value in this NCAA Tournament First Round matchup:

Notre Dame vs Alabama Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

• Notre Dame +4 (-110)
• Alabama -4 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Notre Dame: +155
• Alabama: -190

Total:

• 152.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Notre Dame vs. Alabama Betting Trends, Insights and Analysis

Notre Dame

• Regular Season Record: 22-10

• ATS Record:17-15

• Over/Under Record: 18-14

• SoS: 57th

• Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 112.0

• Defensive Efficiency: 98.3

• eFG%: 54.0%

• FT%: 75.9%

• 3PT%: 37.7%

• Last Year’s Tournament Result: N/A

• Odds to win National Championship: +3000 (Field)

Alabama

• Overall Record: 19-13

• ATS Record:11-21

• Over/Under Record: 21-10-1

• SoS: 9th

• Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 116.1

• Defensive Efficiency: 98.7

• eFG%: 51.5%

• FT%: 71.3%

• 3PT%: 30.8%

• Last Year’s Tournament Result: Sweet 16

• Odds to win National Championship: +7500

Notre Dame vs. Alabama Prediction and Pick

The Crimson Tide are toast. They've been horrible against the spread in all situations, but especially when favored. Are you ready for this? Okay, Alabama is 2-16 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite. No, seriously. Two and sixteen!

This is the easiest upset pick of the first round. The Fighting Irish are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 and 7-2 ATS in their last nine as an underdog.

Alabama turns the ball over at one of the highest rates in the country and is perhaps the worst three-point shooting team in the tournament. That's not good. Notre Dame can defend the perimeter and don't allow opponents to shoot free throws. The Crimson Tide's offense is pretty much just 3s and free throws, so the Fighting Irish are built to defend them.

I'm shocked this line is so high and I think Notre Dame should be favored. They took the best shot Rutgers had and prevailed and should have a more comfortable win against the easiest fade of March Madness.

Pick: Notre Dame +155

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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