Now's a Good Time to Buy Low on Cleveland Browns Super Bowl Odds

Oct 3, 2021; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) passes in
Oct 3, 2021; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) passes in / Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

Yes, the Browns are 3-2 on the season, but I’m here to tell you that this team is a Super Bowl contender.

While many are going to applaud the Chargers who beat the Browns last week, or look to anoint the Bills as the class of the AFC after disposing the Chiefs, it’s Cleveland futures that I will be betting. 

The Browns are +650 to win the AFC and +1400 to win the Super Bowl at WynnBET Sportsbook. Let me explain why this team is primed for a run to Super Bowl Sunday.

Defense Wins Championships

Cleveland’s pass defense numbers are well below average, 23rd in dropback EPA, but they are elite against the run, inside the top 10, and third in defensive success rate. 

I believe that their pass defense numbers are inflated due to big plays from the Chiefs (Week 1) and Chargers (Week 5) who ripped off chunk plays. The team is sixth in EPA/play on defense on first and second down, but have been killed on third and fourth down. 

For reference, the Chargers converted all four of their fourth down attempts last week. 

I think this defense, led by Myles Garrett, is going to figure it out as the season progresses with all the talent on hand.

Front Runners

The Browns are one of the best rushing teams in the league with the duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. They have the best rush EPA in the league this season by a considerable margin. 

Cleveland has been able to run all over teams this season, and while a few bounces didn’t break their way against KC or LAC, that doesn’t mean it won’t come around in January. Each game came down to the final minutes, and I’m bullish the Browns offense is up to snuff to hang with teams such as the aforementioned AFC West duo.

While Baker Mayfield may not be an elite quarterback, he is perfect for this Cleveland offense. If you toss out an outlier game against the Vikings, he is completing more than 73% of his passes. The team is still hoping to get Odell Beckham Jr. up to speed after a torn ACL last season and the team is without Jarvis Landry for a few weeks with an injury of his own. However, if the team is this good on the ground, Mayfield doesn't have to be elite, and if the Browns build an early lead, I expect them to attack with Chubb and Hunt to grind the clock and win playoff games.


In my opinion, Kevin Stefanski is quickly asserting himself as one of the brightest minds in football. He’s constantly making analytically sound decisions, tied for the league lead in fourth down attempts, and I believe that the Browns are due for some positive variance. These aren't reckless decisions from Stefanski, who has noted that he isn't being "aggressive for the sake of being aggressive."

If Cleveland gets a singular fourth down stop against the Chargers, or avoids having a fourth quarter punt block, and wins, how do we view this team?

This is a small part of a long season, but I’ve been nothing but impressed. 

Get on the Browns bandwagon now ahead of their game against the undefeated Cardinals.

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