Now's the Time to Bet Kentucky Futures

The marquee matchup of Saturday's college basketball slate took place in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge between Kentucky and Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse with two teams trending in opposite directions despite their records not looking like it.

In the prior week, Kentucky lost at No. 1 Auburn in a hotly contested matchup with the Wildcats losing their lead guard Tyty Washington to injury in the first half. A similar thing happened in another SEC loss for Big Blue Nation with Sahvir Wheeler getting hurt in the opening minutes in an early January loss at LSU.

Meanwhile, Kansas had been skating by, holding off Iowa State at home by 1, winning by 3 at Oklahoma and Kansas State before a double overtime win at home against Texas Tech in one of the wildest games of the season.

So Kansas is winning in big spots and Kentucky is losing albeit due to injuries. I had been debating internally to place a Kentucky future before the game, which I saw at +1800 in the market, but within minutes of tip off I knew those numbers wouldn't exist anymore.

Kentucky bludgeoned Kansas, 80-62 in the second worst home loss of Bill Self's tenure in Lawrence, Kansas. It was a statement win that came on the heels of the Wildcats near-30 point route of Tennessee on Jan. 15.

The market has responded at WynnBET Sportsbook, moving the Wildcats down to +1200. I was able to find some other numbers (+1500) but +1200 is the stopping point for me as I project the Wildcats to continue their upward trajectory given their statistical profile and schedule as a National Championship contender.

KenPom Profile

Let's start with the profile of a National Championship winner. KenPom is an invaluable database that maintains several key statistics, among other things, and ranks all the teams in Division 1 basketball from an statistical perspective, not like the AP Poll, which is subjective.

KenPom is gospel for college hoops junkies like yours truly and it is an incredibly predictive resource as well. Dating back to 2002, every team that has cut down the nets has placed inside of KenPom's top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, a compilation of statistics that the website deems as indicative of success.

There are only two omissions, such as the 2014 Connecticut Huskies, who ranked 39th in KenPom's offensive efficiency mark that season. As well, last season, Baylor won the National Championship with the No. 22 defense. However, I will push back and say that the Bears' midseason COVID-19 pause played a role in that throwing us off the scent that Baylor was a true contender.

These numbers are constantly changing as each game is another data point to update the numbers, but as of now Kentucky is No. 3 overall in KenPom's rankings behind Gonzaga and Baylor behind the No. 4 offense and No. 19 defense. So, it's not locked in this team is inside the top 20 on both sides of the ball, but I believe it's something to note as we hit the final month of the regular season.

I will mention the teams that are inside this threshold in addition to Kentucky are: Gonzaga, Baylor, Arizona, Houston, Auburn, Villanova and UCLA. Of those, UK is showing the most betting value in my opinion.

So, UK fits inside the historical parameters as a title contender as of this writing. Of note, the Wildcats are an elite rebounding unit behind National Player of the Year contender (+600 at WynnBET) Oscar Tshiebwe. The West Virginia transfer is No. 1 in both offensive rebounding and defensive rebounding rate.

As well, the backcourt is starting to round into form. Washington hurt his ankle last week, but he's been fantastic in SEC play, including a 28-point outburst in the aforementioned 28-point win over Tennessee and gutted it out in the Kansas game despite being ineffective. He's flanked by Davidson transfer Kellan Grady, who is as lethal as any perimeter shooter in the country, hitting on nearly 44% of his 3s.

After some poor shooting failed Kentucky early in the season, the team is shooting better from 3 in SEC play than any other team.

In my opinion, that's not an outlier, that is just a team figuring out what is working around transfers like Tshiebwe (who is becoming a better shooter from mid range) Grady, and Georgia transfer Wheeler as well as a five star recruit in Washington. There is more to this team, such as junior Keion Brooks, who had 27 points at Kansas that make them a well rounded club.

Schedule Favors Wildcats

The SEC is the toughest conference in college basketball this season so there will likely be slip ups along the way for Kentucky, but the schedule opens up for the team going forward after they play at Alabama.

For what it's worth, I project Kentucky as 3-point road favorites at Alabama, as does Barttorvik.com, who makes them favorites in each of their remaining games this season. Losses happen, but the market is clearly bullish on Kentucky, as Barttorvik makes them small favorites at Tennessee and -4 at Arkansas later this month.

There are plenty of opportunities at home for the Wildcats to beef up their resume in addition to those road trips such as at home against the Crimson Tide and home against LSU. The SEC's difficulty may not hamper the team's price as much as it will benefit them if they continue to play to their expectation.

The team currently projects as a No. 3 seed but I see it more likely than not they push closer to No. 2 with all the marquee matchups remaining on the schedule.

Bet Kentucky Now

I was pulling for Kentucky to drop the game at Kansas for my own benefit, so I can get a better number on them to cut down the nets in New Orleans. That didn't happen but the price hasn't moved completely out of range. This Kentucky team profiles as a contender that is only getting better as the season goes on.

With a NPOY candidate in Tshiebwe, a deadly perimeter threat and Grady, and a reliable guard in Washington, the Wildcats' price is only going to continue to be trending downward. The betting markets love them, and I see them as a legitimate threat that will be in the mix come the first weekend in April.

I wish I was ahead of the move on Kentucky, but I like them at +1200 or better. I have other futures to win the National Championship such as Auburn, Arizona and Oregon, but those prices have moved. I'm trying to build a portfolio of teams that gives me a good chance at having the winner and Kentucky is the team to add given their statistical profile, respect in market and upward trajectory.

You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!