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Nuggets vs. Hornets Prediction and Odds (Perfect Spot to Fade Surging Hornets)

By Joe Summers

The Hornets took down the Nets last night and hope to stay hot as they host the Nuggets today
The Hornets took down the Nets last night and hope to stay hot as they host the Nuggets today / Anadolu Agency/GettyImages
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Fresh off an impressive 119-110 upset win over the Nets to spoil Kyrie Irving's home debut, the 39-36 Charlotte Hornets hope to stay hot when they host the 44-31 Denver Nuggets tonight at 7:00 PM EST.

The Hornets have now won seven of their last eight and sit 3.5 games behind the Raptors for the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference standings. With just a week to go in the regular season, Charlotte appears locked in to the Play-In Tournament but still have an opportunity to avoid it if they catch Toronto.

Denver, meanwhile, is 1.5 games ahead of the Timberwolves for the Western Conference's sixth seed and hope to avoid the Play-In Tournament as well. But the Nuggets are struggling a bit, having lost two of three and failing to cover the spread in eight of their last 11.

Can the Hornets stay hot and rattle off two marquee wins in a row or will Denver snap out of their funk and cover as road favorites?

Here are the odds via WynnBET as we look for value in this Nuggets vs Hornets matchup:

Nuggets vs Hornets Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

  • Nuggets -3 (-110)
  • Hornets +3 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Nuggets: -160
  • Hornets: +130

Total:

  • 233.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Nuggets vs Hornets Prediction and Pick

This is an intriguing matchup for a variety of reasons.

Nikola Jokic is trying to secure a second-straight MVP award while carrying the Nuggets, and the Hornets utilize a balanced approach and lead the league in assist percentage.

Charlotte has been the better team of late. The Hornets rank sixth in the NBA in net rating in March (6.2) compared to the Nuggets' ranking 13th (0.6) thanks to the second-best offense in the league. That's bad news for a Denver defense that's 25th in rating over their last 10 games.

But this is the second night of a back-to-back for Charlotte and they've been a disaster in these spots all year. They're 1-12 (!) with no rest this season and 3-10 against the spread (ATS). Last night's game was in Brooklyn too, so they had to travel to Charlotte to get set for a quick turnaround.

And Denver has been fantastic on the road, going 8-3 ATS in their last 11 and 5-2 ATS in their last seven as a road favorite. The Hornets, on the other hand, are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine as a home underdog.

The Nuggets have a significant rebounding advantage, ranking seventh in March in rebound percentage compared to 26th for Charlotte. With the tired legs the Hornets are likely to have, I expect that advantage to be even larger.

I know Charlotte has been playing fantastic recently, but this line feels like bait. "The Hornets just beat the Nets and the Nuggets barely beat the Thunder, of course Charlotte is going to win!" However, that's exactly what sportsbooks want us to think.

This is a great opportunity to fade a Hornets squad in spot that they've mightily struggled in all year and buy low on Denver. Give me the Nuggets to cover on the road.

Pick: Nuggets -3 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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