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Nuggets vs. Timberwolves NBA Expert Prediction and Odds for NBA Playoffs Game 3 (Target THIS Team Total)

By Reed Wallach

May 6, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) controls
May 6, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) controls / Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
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The Western Conference Semifinals series between the defending champion Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves is set to resume on Friday night in Minnesota after a shocking start to the matchup. 

The T’Wolves won both games in Denver against the defending champion Nuggets, setting up a must-win situation for Denver, who has been off for three days ahead of Game 3. Can Jamal Murray’s calf recover and can the Nuggets adjust to the Timberwolves’ defense? 

Here’s our full betting preview for Game 3 on Friday night:

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

  • Nuggets: +3.5 (-108)
  • TImberwolves: -3.5 (-112)

Moneyline

  • Nuggets: +136
  • Timberwolves: -162

Total: 205 (Over -110/Uner -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves How to Watch

  • Date: Friday, May 10th
  • Game Time: 9:30 PM EST
  • Venue: Target Center
  • How to Watch (TV): ESPN
  • Series Score: Timberwolves lead 2-0

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Injury Reports

Nuggets Injury Report

  • Jamal Murray - calf - questionable
  • Reggie Jackson - calf - questionable
  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - abdominal - questionable

Timberwolves Team Injury Report

  • N/A

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Key Players to Watch

Denver Nuggets

Jamal Murray: Murray has been battling a calf strain, and it’s changed the entire complexion of the Nuggets. Minnesota has hounded him with an array of wing defenders and its shown in the box score. Murray has 25 points through two games while shooting 28% from the field. Can Murray play at his best with extra time off and the defending champs backs’ against the wall?

Minnesota Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards: Edwards has been a matchup nightmare for the Nuggets wing defenders, cooking everyone Denver head coach Mike Malone is sticking on him. Edwards has scored 70 points on 60% shooting through two games.

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Prediction and Pick

The Timberwolves defense has been stellar all season long, and just shut down a Nikole Jokic-led offense to 80 points in Game 2 in Denver without its Defensive Player of the Year winner Rudy Gobert. 

While I expect the Timberwolves defense to continue having somewhat success in this matchup, I do believe you can see a heightened performance from the defending champs with extra time for Murray’s calf to heal. 

Where I see betting value in this game is fading the Timberwolves offense. 

Minnesota was below the league average in offensive rating during the regular season, 17th in points per 100 possession according to NBA.com, but have exploded in the postseason, posting the highest effective field goal percentage of any team playing.

The T’Wolves offense is not only locking up on defense, but shooting better than any team in the regular season. 

I believe for Minnesota to win, it’ll fall on the team’s defense to shut down the Nuggets, but my favorite bet is the team total under. 

PICK: Timberwolves Team Total UNDER 104.5 (-118)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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