Nuggets vs. Timberwolves NBA Expert Prediction and Odds for NBA Playoffs Game 4 (Trust the Champs)

The Denver Nuggets showed why they are the defending champs in Game 3 of the second round against the Minnesota Timberwolves, winning by 27 points to put themselves back in the series entering Game 4.

Sure, Denver still needs a road win to even the series, but the Nuggets have already seen oddsmakers start to believe in them again, making Denver just a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday night. On Friday, Denver was a 4.5-point underdog in Game 3. 

Jamal Murray had a massive Game 3, a huge bounce back from his poor showings in Denver, and the Nuggets have a real chance to win Game 4 and re-take home-court advantage in this series. 

How should we bet on this Western Conference showdown?

Here’s a look at the latest odds, my best bet and the key players to watch tonight: 

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Nuggets +2.5 (-110)
• Timberwolves -2.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Nuggets: +120
• Timberwolves: -142

Total

• 204.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, May 12
• Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Target Center
• How to watch (TV): TNT
• Series: Timberwolves lead 2-1

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Injury Reports

Nuggets Injury Report

• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – questionable
• Jamal Murray – questionable
• Reggie Jackson – questionable
• Vlatko Cancar – out

Timberwolves Injury Report

• None to report

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Key Players to Watch

Denver Nuggets

Jamal Murray: Jamal Murray was the difference in Game 3. He shot 11-for-21 from the field the game after shooting 3-for-17, scoring 24 points to lead Denver to a 27-point win. If Murray’s calf injury is feeling better after some time off between Games 2 and 3, he could swing this series in favor of Denver.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards: The Timberwolves need Anthony Edwards to turn in a huge game after he scored just 19 points in the team’s loss in Game 3. Edwards has five games this postseason with 27 or more points, and if he puts up a big scoring game, it should make up for Minnesota’s brutal offensive showing in Game 3.

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Prediction and Pick

I believe something in this series shifted in Game 3. 

If you look at the first two games, Denver could not find a rhythm offensively – partially due to Murray’s struggles – but it did show up on the defensive end, allowing just 106 points in both games. 

That came with a lot of missed shots, a lot of transition chances for the Wolves and a lot of Denver turnovers. 

So, what happened in Game 3 when the Denver offense was humming? The Wolves scored just 90 points. 

Now, I’m not saying that’s going to happen again, but the Nuggets’ offense is their best defense right now, because Minnesota has not been dominant in the half court in this series. In Game 2 alone, Minnesota had 18 fast break points and forced 19 turnovers. 

If Denver makes this game a slowed down, half-court battle, I think it can steal another road win. It’s also worth noting that Minnesota is just 16-22-2 against the spread when favored at home this season.

Give me the Nuggets to cover and potentially even this series. 

Pick: Nuggets +2.5 (-110)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.