Nuggets vs. Timberwolves NBA Expert Prediction and Odds for NBA Playoffs Game 6 (Denver Can Close Things Out)
By Peter Dewey
Well, how the tables have turned in the Western Conference semifinals.
After falling down 0-2 with two losses at home, the Denver Nuggets have completely flipped the script in their series with the Minnesota Timberwolves, winning three games in a row to take a 3-2 lead heading into Game 6 in Minnesota.
The Nuggets are now odds on favorites to win the Western Conference in the 2023-24 season, a sign that they’re expected to close out the Timberwolves in either Game 6 or Game 7.
Minnesota is favored in Game 6, but the Wolves have simply fallen apart over the last three games, struggling to contain MVP Nikola Jokic and the Denver offense after dominating them over the first two games.
Here’s a look at the Nuggets-Timberwolves Game 6 odds, key players to watch and my best bet:
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Odds, Spread and Total
Spread
- Nuggets +2 (-108)
- Timberwolves -2 (-112)
Moneyline
- Nuggets: +110
- Timberwolves: -130
Total
- 204.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves How to Watch
- Date: Thursday, May 16
- Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
- Venue: Target Center
- How to watch (TV): ESPN
- Seris: Nuggets lead 3-2
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Injury Reports
Nuggets Injury Report
- Vlatko Cancar – out
- Jamal Murray – questionable
Timberwolves Injury Report
- Mike Conley – questionable
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Key Players to Watch
Denver Nuggets
Nikola Jokic: Jokic has Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert in trouble. The three-time league MVP has scored 24, 35 and 40 points in the last three games, dominating Gobert in the last two matchup with 75 total points. Denver is plus-54 over the last three games when Jokic is on the floor, and he has to be slowed down by the Wolves if they want any chance to win this game.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Anthony Edwards: Edwards had put together some big games in this series, but he’s failed to score 20 points in two of the three losses for the Wolves. He did have 44 points in Game 4, but Minnesota lost the minutes he was out of the game by 13 points. If Ant can’t get going offensively, it doesn’t look like Minnesota has much hope.
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Prediction and Pick
It took two losses at home, but after a sluggish first round series against the Los Angeles Lakers, the Nuggets are finally showing why they are title contenders.
Denver has found the weaknesses in the Minnesota defense, specifically allowing Jokic to attack Rudy Gobert one-on-one. Gobert – as Draymond Green said at halftime in Game 5 – has nothing for him.
Even though the Wolves are favored, I think Denver closes out this series in six games. The Timberwolves are a younger team that lacks playoff experience in this spot, and Karl-Anthony Towns simply hasn’t given enough supplementary scoring to help Anthony Edwards.
With Mike Conley out in Game 5, too much of the ball-handling fell on Edwards, making it easier for Denver to defend. It’s possible the veteran returns from an Achilles injury in Game 6, but it’s going to be tough for him to still be effective.
Edwards has played over 44 minutes in each of the last two games, but the Wolves are minus-16 when he’s off the floor. That’s unsustainable if they want to win this series.
Bet on the defending champs to flex their muscle again in Game 6.
Pick: Nuggets Moneyline (+110)
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.