Oakland vs. Wright State Prediction and Odds (Back Sharp Move on Grizzlies in Horizon League Quarterfinal)

The Horizon League Tournament quarterfinals continue this evening from the Nutter Center in Dayton, Ohio as the No. 5 Oakland (MI) Golden Grizzlies face the Wright State Raiders at 7 p.m. ET.

This will be Wright State's first game of the conference championship round having last played Robert Morris all the way back on Friday, February 26th in a 71-61 victory. The Raiders have won three of their last four including against Oakland 78-74 on the road.

Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have also won two straight, the latter of which came on Tuesday to kick off the tournament in a 69-58 win vs. IUPUI as, wait for it, 23.5-point favorites. IUPUI ended up covering the number, a remarkable accomplishment considering they had only five players in total available to play.

Here are the latest odds for tonight's 5-4 matchup over at WynnBET Sportsbook:

Oakland vs. Wright State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

• Oakland +3.5 (-110)
• Wright State -3.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Oakland +150
• Wright State -180

Total:

• 145 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

Oakland vs. Wright State Prediction and Pick

I'm expecting Wright State to be a tad bit rusty after not playing in almost two weeks, which plays into Oakland's hands in a tournament style setting.

I also think it's a key reason why the number has moved from it's opening line of Wright State -5 down to -3.5 as well.

Both squads cancel each other out in many statistical categories. Both are terrific free-throw shooting teams, as Oakland ranks 10th in the country at 78.8% and Wright State just three percentage points behind at 75.8% (41st). Both average just under 31% in offensive rebound percentage, and neither team is good at all from three-point range, hitting 30.1 and 32.4% of their three's respectively.

Via CBB Analytics, both these teams rank exactly in the 80th percentile for offensive rating this season. While Wright State has been the hotter offensive team of late (95th percentile in offensive rating compared to 60th for Oakland), this is where the long stretch away plays in for me. Nearly two weeks from game action is likely to come with time to get adjusted back to game action. Conversely, Oakland ranks in the 100th percentile in steals.

That combination of rustiness and opportunity for turnovers sets up very well for Oakland, who should cover the 3.5 tonight.

PICK: Oakland +3.5 (bet down to +3)

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