Let's Set Odds: Where Will Carlos Correa Sign in Free Agency?

Minnesota Twins shortstop Carlos Correa.
Minnesota Twins shortstop Carlos Correa. / Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

The shortstop class in this year’s Major League Baseball free agency is one of the best there has ever been, with Dansby Swanson, Carlos Correa, Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts all set to hit the open market. 

Correa’s opt out from his contract with the Minnesota Twins became official this week, which means this will be the second time in as many offseasons that he will be a free agent. 

The Twins signed Correa to a three-year deal last offseason, but it offered him the ability to opt out after the first season, essentially giving Correa a chance to cash in if he had a good season. 

Well, the two-time All-Star did just that, slashing .291/.366/.467 with 22 homers and 64 runs batted in across 136 games. Correa had a 5.4 Wins Above Replacement, and at just 28 years old, he should still have several All-Star caliber seasons ahead of him. 

But where will Correa sign to continue his career? Will the Twins pay up again for him this offseason? Or does another team swoop in to sign Correa to a major deal? 

Here are the hypothetical odds for Correa’s next team: 

Odds for Which Team Will Sign Carlos Correa

  • Minnesota Twins: +110
  • San Francisco Giants: +150
  • The Field: +180
  • Atlanta Braves: +200
  • Baltimore Orioles: +250

Minnesota Twins (+110)

The Twins may have missed the playoffs in the 2022 season, but it’s going to be hard to justify letting Correa walk, especially since the team was willing to commit to him for three seasons if he didn’t opt out. 

Minnesota should have won the AL Central if it hadn’t collapsed to end the season, and it doesn’t make sense for the team to enter a full rebuild after adding some of the players it did (Sonny Gray, Gio Urshela, Jorge Lopez) and extending Byron Buxton. 

I wouldn't be shocked if Correa stays put. 

San Francisco Giants (+150)

The Giants seem intent on spending on someone this offseason, and if it’s not Aaron Judge, it could be Correa. 

Brandon Crawford, the team’s longtime shortstop, is in the final year of his deal, and the Giants could move him to a new spot in the infield or use him primarily as a designated hitter in the 2023 season. 

The Field (+180)

There are going to be a ton of teams interested in Correa, and it’s possible that a team like the Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs or others could come out of nowhere and make Correa a godfather offer. 

Depending who is the first shortstop to sign, it could start a domino effect for the rest in the offseason. 

Atlanta Braves (+200)

This is pretty simple, if the Braves don’t bring back Dansby Swanson, they’ll likely be in on every free agent shortstop, including Correa.

A great defender and solid hitter, Correa would replace Swanson pretty seamlessly in Atlanta if the Braves believe he is an upgrade. 

Baltimore Orioles (+250)

The Baltimore Orioles are my dark horse here, as they exceeded expectations in the 2022 season, nearly sneaking into a wild card spot. 

Shortstop prospect Gunnar Henderson was called up at the end of the 2022 season, but he has an elite arm, so the team could move him to third if it signs Correa.

The O’s have a very low payroll, so if they’re willing to spend they could be in on everyone this offseason.

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.