Shortstop Dansby Swanson is officially a free agent after he rejected the Atlanta Braves qualifying offer.
As expected, Dansby Swanson rejected the #Braves' $19.65 million qualifying offer for 2023. His free-agent journey now begins.
— Grant McAuley (@grantmcauley) November 15, 2022
The Braves reportedly made an offer to Swanson in the $100 million range, but he declined it to pursue free agency and aim for a figure closer to what Javy Baez and Trevor Story received in free agency last season.
A solid defensive shortstop, Swanson had a great season at the plate in the 2022 campaign, slashing .277/.329/.447 with 25 home runs and 96 runs batted in. With several other shortstops (Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts) also set to hit free agency, Swanson’s defense is a major upside for interested teams.
Here are hypothetical odds to predict Swanson’s next team in the free-agent market:
Odds for Dansby Swanson’s Next Team in MLB Free Agency
- Atlanta Braves: +110
- Los Angeles Dodgers: +150
- Seattle Mariners: +200
- Chicago Cubs: +250
- The Field: +300
Atlanta Braves (+110)
Do the Braves really let Swanson walk?
I think the two sides will eventually come to a deal, especially since the Braves were already willing to give him $100 million this offseason.
Atlanta does have a potential replacement in Vaughn Grissom, but why not have both players in case an injury happens like the one that Ozzie Albies suffered last season?
Los Angeles Dodgers (+150)
The Dodgers are the team that would scare me the most if I’m a Braves fan, as Swanson fits everything they need.
He’s a better defender than Trea Turner, and he’s likely going to come at a discounted price as well.
Turner has a better bat, but the Dodgers need to be able to trust their shortstop to make big plays on both sides of the ball going forward.
Seattle Mariners (+200)
The Mariners are going all in, as evidenced by their trade for Teoscar Hernandez, so it wouldn’t shock me if Swanson is in their plans.
He gives them a major defensive upgrade over J.P. Crawford at the position, and he could hit at the top of their order next season.
Chicago Cubs (+250)
The Cubs are expected to be active in their pursuit of a free-agent shortstop, but I have a hard time thinking Swanson chooses them over a potential contender.
Sources: #Cubs among most active teams in the shortstop market during early days of free agency. They’ve been in touch with the agents for Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, and Dansby Swanson. @MLBNetwork @MLB
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) November 12, 2022
That being said, the market could dry up quickly if other teams find their guy first, so the Cubbies are ahead of the field.
The Field (+300)
The Philadelphia Phillies, San Francisco Giants and New York Yankees are three teams that come to mind here, and Philly could make a serious run at Swanson to pry him away from a division rival.
I still think the Braves and Dodgers make the most sense, but Swanson is going to highly sought after in the market.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.