Let's Set Odds: Which NFL Team Will Go From Worst to First in 2022?
It seems like every year, a team moves from the bottom of their division to the top. Last year, the Cincinnati Bengals held that mantle; going from 4-11-1 to 10-7 and a Super Bowl participant.
Anybody can make the surprise jump from worst to first in the NFL, but how can you determine who's most likely to do it?
Since there currently aren’t odds for “worst-to-first teams,” we’re going to set them ourselves. The great thing about this exercise is that there isn’t a wrong answer. At least, not yet.
Odds To Go Worst-to-First in the NFL This Season
- Baltimore Ravens +200
- Denver Broncos +300
- Jacksonville Jaguars +450
- Field +1000
Baltimore Ravens: +200
The Ravens have the best quarterback of all the teams that finished in last place and led the AFC North through eight weeks last season. A healthy Lamar Jackson had Baltimore at 6-2; ready to keep trucking. Eventually the injuries just became too much.
The Ravens get several defensive starters back, as well as offensive lineman and some running backs to help Jackson on the ground. The AFC North is consistently the closest division in football and there is no reason why a competent football team like the Ravens can’t make the jump up to the top. After all, they only finished two games out of first place in 2021.
Denver Broncos: +300
The Broncos made the biggest quarterback upgrade this season when they acquired Russell Wilson from the Seahawks. Denver has been a quarterback away since 2015, and if Wilson can simply be a step up from Drew Lock, the Broncos have a shot at turning things around.
The AFC West might be the toughest division in football right now, but it will be a crapshoot to start out. Denver needs a good start to the season, but they at least have a leader.
Jacksonville Jaguars: +450
The Jaguars have a new regime, fresh weapons on offense and a rejuvenated Trevor Lawrence. The AFC South only has one team that's truly scary and that’s the Indianapolis Colts.
Even with Matt Ryan at the helm, the AFC South still feels wide open. The Titans and Texans aren’t going to be serious threats to the division crown, which leaves the Jags in a pretty good position to potentially take over.
If Doug Pederson can create the same turnaround he had in Philly in Jacksonville, the Jaguars will be the surprise team.
Field: +1000
The teams in this category (Jets, Giants, Commanders, Lions, Panthers) are here because of their quarterback situation. These are either quarterbacks who have been written off or still remain unproven.
I don’t see these remaining teams overcoming their quarterback situation, or their stacked divisions to get from worst to first.
You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.