Oddsmakers Make it Near Certainty Aaron Judge Wins AL MVP

As if Aaron Judge couldn't get any hotter, he has this weekend.

The AL MVP candidate is on the hottest stretch of his career best season, cracking four home runs in three games against the Kansas City Royals to push his home run count to 42 on the season. Now, Judge is the overwhelming favorite to win his first Most Valuable Player on the AL leading New York Yankees.

In the 10 games since the All-Star break, Judge is hitting .436 with nine home runs and 21 runs batted in. Oddsmakers have adjusted accordingly, installing him as the biggest favorite in the MVP market this season.

Here are the updated odds from consensus sportsbooks in what has become a two-man race for the award:

2022 AL MVP Odds

• Aaron Judge: -420
• Shohei Ohtani: +400

Judge's Home Runs Pushes Him Towards AL MVP

Judge's home run rate is just silly this season, the third most home runs before August in MLB history.

After starting the weekend about a coin flip with the dual-threat Ohtani to win MVP, Judge has now surged past the Angels star, entering Sunday's game against the Royals with an implied probability of about 82% to win the award.

Judge leads baseball in home runs, but also in runs batted in (91) and WAR (6.4, per FanGraphs). The Yankees record of 69-33 on the year is also doing wonders for Judge's MVP case.

Ohtani smashed his 22nd home run of the year on Saturday night, on the heels of a 12 strikeout performance against the Texas Rangers on Thursday, but that has not been enough to keep up with Judge's heater since the All-Star break that includes a walk off homer against Kansas City.

With about 60 games to go for all teams across baseball, Judge has set the pace, will he be able to hold on? Oddsmakers are indicating they are comfortable with the result that this award will ultimately reside in New York.

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