Oddsmakers Still Don't Believe in Twins Following Carlos Correa Signing
By Ben Heisler
Teams usually have two objectives whenever they make a splash in free agency: find the missing piece to contend now, or set a tone for when they plan to contend down the road.
When it comes to the Minnesota Twins, oddsmakers believe they're much closer to option No. 2.
Late Friday evening, ESPN's Jeff Passan reported that Minnesota and star free agent shortstop Carlos Correa had agreed to terms on a 3 year, $105.3 million dollar deal. His annual salary will be set at $35.1 million per, with the opportunity to out-out after two years.
Carlos Correa’s deal with the Twins will pay him $35.1 million in each of the three years. No front-loading. He’s got opt-outs after the first and second seasons of the deal. It came together quickly today. And the top free agent of the winter goes to Minnesota in a stunner.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 19, 2022
Correa is one of baseball's top defensive shortstops, winning the Gold Glove award in 2021, and has been an elite option at his position over the last six seasons. Via The Athletic, Correa is the leader in WAR (wins above replacement) at the shortstop position since 2015, and holds the fifth-highest total WAR (34.1) of any shortstop since 1950 (Alex Rodriguez, Cal Ripken Jr, Robin Yount, Manny Machado).
The deal puts Correa amongst the highest paid players in the game on an average annual value level, including at his position. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that Correa's average salary is the top amongst all infielders in the history of the game. Correa still trails pitchers Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole, as well as Angels outfielder Mike Trout for the highest paid players in baseball on an annual level.
Carlos Correa’s contract with the Twins has an average annual value of $35.1 million per year.
— Danny Vietti (@DannyVietti) March 19, 2022
That is the 4th-highest in MLB.
1. Max Scherzer ($43.33M AAV)
2. Gerrit Cole ($36M AAV)
3. Mike Trout ($35.54M AAV)
4. Carlos Correa ($35.1M AAV) pic.twitter.com/UdCrJAEJRo
Twins Still Not Expected to Contend for AL Central, World Series in 2022
Despite trips to the postseason in 2019 and 2020, the Twins regressed to a 73-win team in manager Rocco Baldelli's third season, finishing 73-89, 20 games back of the Chicago White Sox in the AL Central division.
If this is the year that the Twins get back to their winning ways, the oddsmakers don't see it happening.
Over at WynnBET Sportsbook, the Twins' championship odds re-opened following the conclusion of the MLB lockout at +8000 (80/1) to win the World Series. While they've since moved following the signing of Correa down to +6500, or 65/1, it's still an indication that Minnesota remains far away from contention.
The Twins' World Series odds at @WynnBET went from 80/1 to 65/1 following the Carlos Correa signing Friday.
— BetSided (@BetSided) March 19, 2022
They still trail the White Sox (12/1) and Tigers (40/1) in the AL Central... pic.twitter.com/PZ34h52i2c
Both the White Sox (12/1) and Detroit Tigers (40/1) remain far ahead of Minnesota, and will likely be substantially higher on the board once AL Central futures are posted.
Via Fangraphs, Minnesota finished 18th in offense and 24th in pitching a season ago. Other than Correa, the lone free agent they've signed has been 29-year old pitcher Dylan Bundy, who is coming off an atrocious season with the Angels, going 2-9 with a 6.06 ERA.
Unless the Twins have more moves coming down the pipeline, or the entire team plays back to their levels from 2019-2020, it could be another rough year despite signing the best free agent in this year's class.
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