Ohio vs. Abilene Christian Prediction and Odds for CBI Quarterfinals (Wildcats to Win Low-Scoring Affair)
By Joe Summers
We've got a quarterfinal matchup of the College Basketball Invitational today as the 24-10 Abilene Christian Wildcats take on the 25-9 Ohio Bobcats at 8:30 p.m. EST.
The Bobcats took down Rice 65-64 in the opening round but failed to cover the six-point spread while Abilene Christian handled Troy 82-70 and covered its six-point spread.
These teams haven't played each other this year, but Ohio comes in just 1-5 against the spread (ATS) over their last six contests. The Wildcats are on a bit of a roll and are 8-4 ATS in their last dozen.
Does value lie with the Bobcats to cover a narrow number or will Abilene Christian stay hot?
Let's check out the odds over at WynnBET to find a wager in this Ohio vs Abilene Christian matchup:
Ohio vs Abilene Christian Odds, Spread and Total
Spread
- Ohio -1.5 (-110)
- Abilene Christian +1.5 (-110)
Moneyline:
- Ohio: -125
- Abilene Christian: +105
Total:
- 144 (Over -110/Under -110)
Ohio vs Abilene Christian Prediction and Pick
As we get to the postseason, I value recent form far more than season-long stats. Ohio tore its competition apart throughout most the season, winning 14 of 15 games and looking like a shoe-in for the NCAA Tournament. But it stumbled significantly to close the year, losing four of its last six and going 4-10 ATS over its last 14 games.
The Bobcats' offense has completely fallen apart. It ranks in just the third percentile in effective field goal percentage and in the fourth percentile in assists per game over their last five, which tells us that it is not moving the ball properly and settling for poor shots. A high assist rate is usually correlated with strong shooting percentages - it's easier to get good shots when you're setting up your teammates instead of settling for contested jumpers.
It's difficult to snap out of a cold streak when your offense has turned to isolation, and Abilene Christian has an excellent defense ready to take advantage of a stagnant offense. The Wildcats rank in the 97th percentile in defensive rating and 100th percentile in steal percentage on the season, so they're salivating for a matchup with this Bobcats unimaginative offensive approach.
Abilene Christian has won 13 of its last 16 and have the highest defensive turnover rate of any team in the country. The Wildcats will win the free throw battle and have been shooting great from beyond the arc, ranking in the 83rd percentile in 3-point shooting percentage over their last five.
I'll side with the hotter team that's got a better defense and is shooting better. But I also like the under. As Ohio's offense has struggled, the under has hit in five straight. I expect that trend to continue and the Wildcats to win a low-scoring contest.
Pick: Abilene Christian +1.5 (-110) and Under 144 (-110)
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.
Follow BetSided's March Madness Hub throughout the entirety of the NCAA men's and women's tournaments for full betting previews and picks for every game, updated betting odds , futures for the Final Four and national championship, insights, trends, videos, podcasts and more!