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Ohio vs. Ball State Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 12

By Reed Wallach

Sep 10, 2022; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Ohio Bobcats quarterback Kurtis Rourke (7) signals
Sep 10, 2022; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Ohio Bobcats quarterback Kurtis Rourke (7) signals / Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports
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Ohio has soared to the top of the MAC East this season behind one of the best passing attacks in the Group of Five.

Quarterback Kurtis Rourke has the Bobcats thinking about a MAC Championship, their first since 1968. Will the high flying Ohio offense stay hot against a formidable Ball State team? The Cardinals hung tough with conference heavyweight Toledo last week, losing 28-21 on the road as a double digit underdog. Can they respond back at home?

Here are the odds for Tuesday night's meeting:

Ohio vs. Ball State Odds, Spread and Total

Ohio vs. Ball State Betting Trends

  • Ohio is 7-3 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Ohio is 2-1 ATS as a favorite this season
  • Ball State is 4-3 ATS as an underdog this season
  • Ohio is 3-0 has gone OVER in all three games this season
  • Ball State has gone UNDER in thre of 10 games this season

Ohio vs. Ball State Prediction and Pick

Ohio has put up at least 24 points in every MAC game this season and I expect it to test the Ball State secondary in this one. The Cardinals do limit explosive passes at a top 30 rate and are top 50 at allowing red zone touchdowns, but the team doesn't get much of a pass rush, 77th in tackles for loss. With time to throw, Rourke should be able to pick apart this Ball State defense. Overall, the team is 81st in success rate against the pass this season.

Meanwhile, the Ohio defense continues to be a concern, outside the top 100 in EPA/Play and success rate. The Bobcats allow the ninth most yards per play in the country and nearly three points per drive. Ball State plays at a top 30 pace and have one of thebest offensive lines in the country, allowing just 10 sacks on the season. While quarterback John Paddock leaves some to be desired, he should have time to throw against an Ohio defense that is 116th in yards per pass allowed and 118th in completion percentage allowed.

I think both offenses find success all night and play at Ball State's accelerated pace. Each team pushing into the high 20's is well within reach given Ohio's vaunted offense but porous defense.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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