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Oklahoma vs. TCU Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 5

By Reed Wallach

Sep 2, 2022; Boulder, Colorado, USA; TCU Horned Frogs wide receiver Derius Davis (11) celebrates his
Sep 2, 2022; Boulder, Colorado, USA; TCU Horned Frogs wide receiver Derius Davis (11) celebrates his / Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
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Two Big 12 rivals do battle in Fort Worth, Texas with a typical conference favorite in trouble of being played out of conference competition.

Oklahoma shockingly lost to Kansas State last week as two touchdown favorites and now hit the road to take on an upstart TCU team that has looked like a formidable candidate for the conference crown this season. The Sooners are favored on the road, but are they on upset alert again under first year head coach Brent Venables?

Here are the latest odds for this Big 12 showdown:

Oklahoma vs. TCU Odds, Spread and Total

Oklahoma vs. TCU Betting Trends

  • TCU has covered in all three games against FBS competition this season
  • Since 2012, Oklahoma is 49-43-1 against the spread (ATS) in Big 12 play
  • Oklahoma went UNDER in their lone road game, 2-2 on the year
  • TCU went OVER in their home game, 2-1 on the year (against FBS foes)

Oklahoma vs. TCU Prediction and Pick

I'm interested in taking TCU as a home underdog, mainly because with a total this high, and a suspect Oklahoma defense, the ability to stay within one score will be there all game long.

Oklahoma's defensive line couldn't keep Kansas State off the field last week, the Wildcats averaged over five yards per carry, which can be an issue against an explosive TCU offense. The Horned Frogs haven't been challenged all that much, but the team is top 11 in both explosive rush and pass this season and will be facing a OU defense that is outside the top 100 in line yards and bottom half nationally in success rate.

Dillon Gabriel has been fantastic for the Sooner, especially when connecting with receiver Marvin Mims, completing 67% of his passes as the team is top 10 in points per drive.

Points are going to come in bunches as both teams have suspect defenses, but I'm going to trust Max Duggan and the TCU offense to keep this offense on track and within the number. Again, the backdoor can be wide open for this cover given the high total and the concerns of the OU defense.

The spot is somewhat ruined for TCU after the Sooners dropped their game to Kansas State last week, but it also showed us some of the flaws that the roster has. I make this game closer to OU -4 and willing to play this to TCU +6.

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