Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Wednesday, Feb. 21

Breaking down the odds, trends, key players, and best bet prediction for Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State on Wednesday night.

Jan 30, 2024; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs forward Tolu Smith (1) dribbles
Jan 30, 2024; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs forward Tolu Smith (1) dribbles / Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
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Ole Miss and Mississippi State are set to face-off for the second time this season on Wednesday night. The two teams played each other back on Jan. 30 with Ole Miss securing the 86-82 win.

Now that Mississippi State will be on its home court, will the Bulldogs be able to get their revenge? I'm going to attempt to answer that question while breaking down everything you need to know to bet on this game.

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Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State odds, spread, and total

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State betting trends

  • Ole Miss is 13-7 ATS in its last 20 games
  • Ole Miss is 5-15 straight up in its last 20 road games vs. Mississippi State
  • The UNDER is 6-2 in Mississippi State's last eight games
  • Mississippi State is 7-1 straight up in its last eight home games
  • Mississippi State is 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 games vs. SEC opponents

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State how to watch

  • Date: Wednesday, Feb. 21 
  • Game time: 9 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Humphrey Coliseum
  • How to watch (TV): ESPN2
  • Ole Miss record: 19-6 (6-6 in SEC)
  • Mississippi State record: 17-8 (6-6 in SEC)

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State key players to watch

Ole Miss

Jaylen Murray: Not only is Jaylen Murray the team leader in assists with 4.0 per game, but he's also their best 3-point shooter, hitting his shots from beyond the arc at a rate of 41.4%. If they can get the three ball to drop against the Bulldogs, they have a chance to complete the series sweep.

Mississippi State

Tolu Smith: Mississippi State's offense revolves around Tolu Smith. He's their leading scorer, averaging 16.1 rebounds per game, and has been dominant on the boards when he's active, averaging 8.2 rebounds per game. When he gets rolling, the Bulldogs are tough to stop.

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State prediction and pick

Ole Miss won the first meeting between these two teams and now I'm going to back them as road underdogs in the rematch.

Not only is Ole Miss the better shooting team (123rd vs. 154th in eFG%), but they can cause some issues for the Bulldogs in other areas as well. One part of the game to keep an eye on tonight is turnovers. Mississippi State ranks 283rd in turnovers per possession, coughing it up 18.3% of the time they have the ball. Meanwhile, the Rebels are 85th in opponent turnovers per game.

That issue showed up in the first meeting between these two teams. Mississippi State has more than twice the amount of turnovers as Ole Miss, 15 compared to seven.

Ole Miss can also find success in two-point range against the Bulldogs, who allow teams to shoot 49.2% from the interior.

I'll take the points with the Rebels on the road.


Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!