Olympic Golf Picks: Who Will Win the Gold Medal?

Olympic golf is set to take place this week for just the second time since the 1904 games. Justin Rose of Great Britain snagged the gold medal in the 2016 games in Rio. Henrik Stenson captured silver for Sweden, and Matt Kuchar won the bronze medal for the United States of America. All three golfers did not qualify for the 2020 edition of the games, which means we’ll see first time medalists in Japan.

Jon Rahm of Spain and Bryson DeChambeau of the USA were late scratches due to positive COVID-19 tests. After initially stating that they wouldn’t send a replacement for Rahm due to time constraints, the Spanish Olympic committee has changed their mind and announced that Jorge Campillo will represent the country in Rahm’s absence. Patrick Reed will serve as the replacement for DeChambeau for Team USA.

Three Americans top the odds list at WynnBET. Collin Morikawa is fresh off his second major tournament victory at the Open Championship, and is set as the betting favorite at +700. Xander Schauffele and Justin Thomas are next on the odds list at +900 and +1000 respectively. To see the full list of odds, check out our Olympic golf odds article.

Olympic Men’s Golf Betting Preview

Both the men’s and women’s golf events are set to take place at the East Course at Kasumigaseki Country Club. Handicapping golf can always be difficult when a tournament takes place at a course that we aren’t familiar with or one that doesn’t have a history of stats for us to reference, and that’s what we have to deal with this week.

The last notable event to be held at Kasumigaseki Country Club is the 2010 asian-pacific amateur, which was won by none other than the current Masters winner, Hideki Matsuyama.

Golf nerds would be interested to know that course designer Tom Fazio led some major renovations on the East Course in 2016. Fazio also designed courses like Quail Hollow and Shadow Creek, so if you want to look at American courses for reference, you can start with those.

One aspect that is common with both Japanese golf courses and Fazio designed courses, is that they’re demanding off the tree and fairways are lined by trees. It’s not saying anything groundbreaking, but valuing play off the tee and good iron play will be key this week.

Five key stats for Olympic Golf:

• SG: off-the-tee
• Ball striking
• SG: approach the green
• Scrambling %
• SG: putting

Olympic Men’s Golf Picks

Collin Morikawa +700

I hate betting on favorites in golf, I hardly ever do it. One of the main reasons why I stay away from them, is a normal golf tournament has too many people competing in it to justify there being any value on the one guy who’s labeled the favorite.

Olympic golf is a little bit different.

There are only 60 golfers in the field, and with there being a maximum of four golfers representing a single country (USA is the only country with four this year), the majority of the field is made up from players you’ve likely never heard of. Take the 2016 Olympics as an example. All three medalists were in the top 5 in pre-tournament betting odds to win. Expect it to be a very top heavy event.

Morikawa is fresh off his second major victory in his young career, and he seems as excited and motivated as anyone to represent his country in the Olympics. If we want to value ball striking, you have to bet on Morikawa by default. His iron play is truly otherworldly. He ranks first on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approach the green at +1.502, and the next closest is Casey at +.907. That’s a significant lead in that statistic on the rest of the golfing world.

Morikawa checks every single box that you’d want in betting on the winner of a golf tournament. As long as his putting doesn’t let him down, he should at least be in contention in the final round.

Corey Conners +2200

My Canadian bias is showing, but if you want to bet on a guy who isn’t in the top of the odds list but still presents value, Corey Conners has to be the best option at +2200. The Canadian is coming off a T15 finish at the Open Championship, and has constantly found himself in contention several times this PGA Tour season.

He ranks 9th in both strokes gained: off-the-tee and strokes gained: approach the green, which has him firmly in the conversation as one of the best ball strikers on Tour. In total strokes gained, Conners ranks 17th on the PGA Tour this season but he’s 9th among all Olympic competitors.

I’ll take a shot on my fellow countryman winning at +2200.

Sungjae Im +3000

Sungjae Im, along with his fellow South Korean Si-Woo Kim, opted to not play in the Open Championship so they could begin early preparation for the Olympics. These two golfers have more to play for than just an Olympic medal, they’ll be competing for two years of freedom.

South Korea has a law that requires two years of mandatory military service, and one of the only ways to be exempt from it is to win an Olympic medal. Both Im and Kim have yet to serve their mandatory service, and this will likely be their final chance to earn exemption. Taking two years out of your athletic prime to serve in the military can crush a golfer's career, as it did for fellow South Korean Sungmoon Bae who never returned to form after taking a break from professional golf to serve his mandatory military service.

Im is certainly the better of the two South Korean golfers competing in the games, and he’s been especially good off the tee this season (16th in SG: off-the-tee) which will be useful at Kasumigaseki Country Club.

Who knows if the added pressure will help or hurt Sungjae's game, but the extra preparation time he’s had compared to the other competitors will do nothing but help him. It would be quite the story if he can capture the gold medal for South Korea.

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