Open Championship Picks, Odds and Betting Preview

It will be 725 days since we last witnessed an Open Championship when the event tees-off on Thursday morning. The Open was the only one of four majors to cancel the 2020 edition of the tournament due to the COVID-19 pandemic, as the other three (Masters, PGA, US Open) decided to only postpone them until later on in the year.

The major is set to return to Royal St. George’s for the first time since 2011. Darren Clarke was the winner of the event last time it was held here, and he was a sizable long shot at the start of the tournament, being listed at 150/1. Ben Curtis was an even bigger long shot when he won the event held at Royal St. Georges in 2003, with his price listed around 300/1.

Odds to win the Open Championship

Here are the top 15 golfers on the odds list at WynnBET to win the 2021 Open Championship

• Jon Rahm +700
• Xander Schauffele +1400
• Brooks Koepka +1500
• Rory McIlroy +1700
• Jordan Spieth +1700
• Justin Thomas +1750
• Dustin Johnson +1750
• Viktor Hovland +2500
• Louis Oosthuizen +2500
• Patrick Cantlay +3000
• Paul Casey +3000
• Bryson DeChambeau +3000
• Matthew Fitzpatrick +3000
• Tyrrell Hatton +3000
• Collin Morikawa +3000

WynnBET is also running a contest for the Open Championship. All you have to do is bet at least $50 on the event, and you will be entered for a chance to win a golf trip to Las Vegas for you and two friends. The experience will include two rooms at Wynn Last Vegas for three nights, three rounds of golf, food and beverage credits, and much more.

How to handicap the Open Championship

Royal St. George’s can be a bit of a tricky course to handicap given that it’s one of the toughest links style courses you’ll see. It’s a par 70, measuring in at 7,206 yards long.

The first and most obvious thing that you need to note about the course, and it’s something that’s true for all Open Championship tracks, is that it’s a links style course. Links style courses are extremely popular in Europe, especially in the United Kingdom.

They’re characterized by an open layout, undulating fairways, large greens and they’re usually located in an area that will produce difficult weather conditions. Europeans, especially those from the UK, will have an advantage in experience on links style courses compared to their American counterparts who are more used to parkland style courses that are played in the United States.

Off-the-tee play is going to take a backseat to iron and wedge play this week. While it may be tempting to bet on someone who can bomb the course with their long drives, or someone who is accurate off the tee, driving ability hasn’t been a consistent indicator of success at Open Championships.

If there’s anything that you may want to look for with off-the-tee play, it’s the ability to be able to play low-flight stingers which will give the golfer an advantage if the conditions become windy.

Iron play is key at every Open Championship, but it will be especially important at this week’s event at Royal St. George’s. The 2011 edition of the event saw players hit the greens in regulation only 55% of the time. That’s the lowest greens in regulation rate of any Open Championship since 2010. You’ll want to make sure you bet on guys with a strong iron game this week because those who don’t, will regularly miss greens.

Chipping isn’t always something you think of being important on a links style course, but it’s historically been important at the Open Championship, especially so at Royal St. George’s. You’ll want to look for good scramblers, especially those who are good out of bunkers. Only 34% of players got up-and-down out of the bunkers here in 2011.

Finally, putting will be king this week. Links courses often have flatter greens with small undulations, but Royal St. George’s takes that to its extreme. Not only are the greens large, but the greens have wild undulations that will give golfers some extremely difficult putts. Just look at this picture of the 18th green.

Key stats for the 2021 Open Championship

• Ball Striking
• Strokes gained: approach the green
• Strokes gained: around the green
• Sand Save percentage
• Strokes gained: putting

Picks to win the Open Championship

Justin Thomas +1750

Justin Thomas was my favorite pick to win last week’s Scottish Open, and he almost pulled it off. An average third round ended up costing him a chance to win on Sunday, but he finished T8 in one of the strongest fields you’ll see on the European Tour schedule. Not only that, but he proved that he can compete on a links style course.

Thomas can struggle off the tee at times, but that can be made up for with a strong iron and scrambling game at Royal St. George’s, which is exactly what JT has. He ranks fifth on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approach the green, 13th in strokes gained: around the green, and 40th in sand save percentage. If he can sink a few putts this week, he’ll be in contention on Sunday.

Paul Casey +3000

I labeled Paul Casey as one of my picks in the article I wrote after the US Open about Europeans who have a shot to win this week. The 43-year old has yet to win a major championship, but if Phil Mickelson can win the PGA Championship, Casey can win the Open.

He ranks T13 in ball striking, second in strokes gained: approach the green, and 29th in strokes gained around the green. He also has a T7 and T4 at this year’s US Open and PGA Championship respectively. He also competed at Royal St. George’s both of the last two times it hosted the Open Championship, which is something only a handful of people in the field this week can say.

Webb Simpson +5000

Webb Simpson has fallen out of favor of most sports bettors in 2021, having hardly competed in the summer and he’ll be entering this week’s event coming off two straight missed cuts. While that may scare most people away from betting on him, I see quite a bit of value on him at 50/1 as a lot of his stats line up perfectly with what’s important at Royal St. George’s.

,He ranks 12th in strokes gained: around the green, first in sand save percentage and 21st in strokes gained: putting. He’s also shown flashes of greatness with his irons, but he’ll be entering this week’s event ranking 62nd in strokes gained: approach. If he can put it all together this weekend, he’s a fantastic bet at +5000.

Don't wait, bet now! Download the WynnBET app in New Jersey, Indiana or Colorado.