Oral Roberts vs. North Dakota State Prediction and Odds (Back the Bison in Summit League Semifinal)

The 22-9 North Dakota State Bison have won 11 of 13 as they take on the 19-11 Oral Roberts Golden Eagles in the Summit League Semifinals tonight at 9:30 PM EST.

North Dakota State has two wins over Oral Roberts this season and the Golden Eagles have struggled recently, going just 4-8 against the spread (ATS) over their last dozen games.

Can Oral Roberts hang tough and pull out an upset win, or will North Dakota State put the hammer down and improve to 18-3 as a favorite?

Let's survey the odds, courtesy of WynnBET, to see where the value is in this all-important matchup:

Oral Roberts vs North Dakota State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Oral Roberts +1 (-110)
• North Dakota State -1 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Oral Roberts: -105
• North Dakota State: -115

Total:

• 151 (Over -110/Under -110)

Oral Roberts vs North Dakota State Prediction and Pick

Oral Roberts is pretty much an auto-fade when not favored. The Golden Eagles are 0-7 as an underdog, including two losses to North Dakota State, and have covered the spread just twice in those games. Both times they covered were as nine-point underdogs, so the one-point spread shouldn't scare us away from betting the Bison.

If you look at the season-long stats, the Golden Eagles would seem to have an offensive advantage. They have the 66th-best adjusted offensive efficiency in the country and are in the 96th percentile in offensive rating over their last five games.

But the Bison are peaking at the right time. Despite a woeful offense for most of the year, North Dakota State is in the 97th percentile in offensive rating over their last five, and now get to take on an Oral Roberts defense that is horrible.

The Golden Eagles are in the 1st percentile in defensive rating in those previous five contests and just gave up 106 points to South Dakota State, so I expect a hot Bison offense to have no problem scoring. On the other end, the Bison are in the top-70 in defensive effective field goal percentage and should do enough to slow down Oral Roberts.

Despite doing an excellent job of protecting the basketball, Oral Roberts ranks 341st in offensive free throw rate. Unless they're just on fire offensively, they won't generate enough easy looks or free throw attempts to keep pace with how many points they'll allow.

North Dakota State is 5-1 ATS in their last six and 17-3 outright as a favorite this year. They're desperate for an NCAA Tournament bid and playing their best basketball of the season. I expect them to handle an Oral Roberts team that's struggling and push the Golden Eagles to 0-8 as an underdog.

Pick: North Dakota State -1 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.