Oregon State vs. San Jose State Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 1
By Reed Wallach
Oregon State made a splash in the transfer portal, landing former Clemson quarterback DJ Uiagalelei to lift the team's passing game.
The Beavers open its season on the road against San Jose State, who showcased some offensive upside in a loss to USC with returning quarterback Chevan Cordeiro. However, a rebuilding Spartans defense allowed 56 points to the Trojans and the Beavers may put up a similar number with its ability to run the ball behind an elite offensive line.
Is it enough to bet the Beavers to cover? Let me walk you through this Sunday afternoon meeting:
Oregon State vs. San Jose State Odds, Spread and Total
San Jose State vs. Oregon State Betting Trends
- San Jose State covered as 31-point underdogs against USC in Week 0, losing 56-28, going over 65.5
- San Jose State went 4-7 ATS last season
- Oregon State went 10-2 ATS last season
- Oregon State went OVER in seven of 12 games last season
Oregon State vs. San Jose State How to Watch
- Date: Sunday, September 3rd
- Game Time: 3:30 PM EST
- Venue: CEFCU Stadium
- How to Watch (TV): CBS
- Oregon State Record: 0-0
- San Jose State Record: 0-0
Oregon State vs. San Jose State Key Players to Watch
Oregon State
Damien Martinez: Everyone wants to talk about DJU transferring to Oregon State, but this is still going to be a run-first offense for the Beavers behind one of the best offensive lines in college football that returns four starters on a unit that was 12th in offensive line yards and top 10 in tackles for loss allowed. The focal point will be Martinez, who ran for just over six yards per carry on 161 rushes and seven touchdowns last season.
Oregon State ran the ball at a top 15 rate last season, and I don't expect it to change all that much even with the high pedigree transfer.
San Jose State
Chevan Cordeiro: Cordeiro played well in the losing effort against USC, leading SJSU's offense to an above average EPA/Play mark and an elite EPA/Rush mark (96th percentile across all games last season), due to Cordeiro's ability to make plays with his legs, rushing for 52 yards. SJSU will need to hit explosive plays against an Oregon State defense that should run well on Sunday afternoon, and Cordeiro had a promising start despite the lopsided score.
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Oregon State vs. San Jose State Prediction and Pick
The Spartans offense looked solid in Week 0, but the defense had some growing pains as it replaces its top two pass rushers from last season in Viliami Fehoko (now playing for the Cowboys) and Cade Hall. SJSU couldn't stop the vaunted USC offense and I doubt it will get much better on Sunday at home against Oregon State. The Beavers elite offensive line should roll after allowing only 12 sacks last season.
The Beavers play incredibly slow, 94th in offensive plays per game, but given that the Spartans are replacing its top two defensive linemen, I expect the Beavers to stay ahead of the sticks and pile up scoring opportunities. I also expect Oregon State to try and integrate in transfer quarterback Uiagalelei with some easy passing opportunities throughout the game. Given that he's in a new system with a favorable matchup, the Beavers may be more aggressive on offense than typical game states, helping our cause to the over.
As noted above, SJSU was able to string together some solid drives against a porous USC defense, and while the Beavers were stout last season, there's a ton of regression looming in 2023.
First, the defense must replace two NFL cornerbacks in Alex Austin and Rrejzohn Wright and its leading tackler in Omar Speights. This was a unit that was elite against the pass, 14th in explosive pass rate allowed, and shut down foes in close, allowing a touchdown on only 50% of red zone opportunities. For a unit that doesn't rush the pass well, the team only had 16 sacks in 2022, bottom 10 in the country, Corderio might be able to get the Spartans into the 20's despite limited possessions with the Beavers slow tempo.
Oregon State should score with ease, but its the team's questions on defense that have me wanting to go over on this rare Sunday college football game.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!