Oregon vs. Oregon State Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 13

Nov 12, 2022; Corvallis, Oregon, USA; Oregon State Beavers wide receiver Anthony Gould (2) runs the
Nov 12, 2022; Corvallis, Oregon, USA; Oregon State Beavers wide receiver Anthony Gould (2) runs the / Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

It's rivalry week and one of the classics each year is the Civil War between Oregon and Oregon State.

There is a ton on the line in this one, as the Ducks need a win to secure a PAC-12 Championship berth as well as maybe some long shot College Football Playoff hopes. Meanwhile, the Beavers have quietly become a near elite club, 8-3 on the season with their only losses coming against USC, Utah and Washington.

The Beavers have arguably the best defense in the PAC-12 this season and will now face one of the best offenses in the country, how will this rivalry game shake out?

Here are the odds and our best bet:

Oregon vs. Oregon State Odds, Spread and Total

Oregon vs. Oregon State Betting Trends

  • Oregon State is 9-2 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Oregon State is 6-0 ATS at home
  • Oregon State is 3-1 ATS as an underdog
  • Oregon is 8-3 ATS this season, but 3-2 away

Oregon vs. Oregon State Prediction and Pick

The Beavers are very reliant on their ground game since making the move to Ben Gulbranson, but it has worked thus far as the team has been able to win the battle up front for the last several weeks and keep this offense on point. For the season, the Beavers are top 30 in success rate, EPA/Play and points per opportunity this season.

The key to this Oregon State offense has been Damien Martinez, who has rushed for over 100 yards in each of his last five games. Can he make it six in a row against their in-state rival?

The team is bottom half of the country in EPA/Rush, but the real issue is the team's inability to limit points in close. The team is bottom 40 nationally in yards per play and teams are scoring at a top 20 clip per drive this season.

So, can Oregon State slow down this Oregon offense? Bo Nix played despite rumors that he would sit and looked severely limited. The Ducks defense stepped up to cause turnovers but the team played their worst offensive performance since Week 1 against Georgia.

If Nix is still hampered by an injury that had his status in doubt, this is going to be another tough game on the road. The Beavers defense are top 30 nationally in EPA/Play on defense nad are particularly strong against the pass, top 30 in success rate. The defense is nails in close, allowing touchdowns on just 50% of opponent's drives inside the red zone. If the team is capable of holding the Ducks to three instead of six, the calculus changes in this game for a team that is bottom 10 in plays per minute and wants to run the rock.

I'll grab the points with the home underdog in a rivalry game. If Nix is still compromised and can't move around in the pocket, the Oregon State defense can get enough stops to play ball control and run their way to an upset bid in Week 13.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.