Oregon vs. Utah Prediction, Odds, Against Spread and Over/Under for Pac 12 Championship Game

Conference title week is finally upon us! The action gets started on Friday night with Western Kentucky vs No. 22 UTSA. That game, however, is not the marquee matchup of the night. 

The Pac–12 Championship game between the No. 11 Oregan Ducks and the No. 19 Utah Utes at Allegiant Stadium in Sin City is the game to watch on Friday evening.

Oregon enters Week 13 coming off back-to-back wins in the Pac-12 title game but suffered a loss to Utah two weeks ago. That game wasn’t so much a loss than it was a complete blowout that saw Utah win 38-7. It was a good sign for the Utes’ chances of securing the program's first Pac-12 title. Utah is also riding a five-game win streak after beating up on Colorado 28-13.

Oregon bounced back last week in the “Civil War” game between themselves and Oregon State 38-29. However, the win wasn’t all that convincing despite covering as 7.5 point favorites. 

Can the Ducks shake off that truly embarrassing loss to Utah a few weeks back and be ready for this game? I am not so sure but let’s take a look at the odds for the Pac-12 Championship game, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Oregon vs. Utah Spread and Over/Under

Spread:

• Oregon: +2.5 (-110) 

• Utah: -2.5 (-110) 

Moneyline:

• Oregon: +125

• Utah: -145

Total:

• 58.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Oregon vs. Utah Betting Trends

• The Ducks are 4-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games. 
• The OVER is 4-2 in the Ducks’ last six games. 
• The Ducks are 8-4 straight up (SU) in their last 12 games against the Utes. 
• The OVER is 4-2 in the Ducks' last six games against the South Division. 
•  The Utes are 8-1 SU in their last nine games.
• Utah is 5-0 SU in their last five games against the Pac-12.
• The OVER is 4-2 in the Utes’ last six games against the North Division. 

Oregon vs. Utah Prediction and Pick

Oregon had its sights set on the College Football Playoffs until it was devastated by Utah and tumbled from No. 3 in the nation. Can Oregon fix the glaring issues it had in the previous matchup? 

Between two missed field goals, one of which was blocked, and a few big punt returns, some blame falls on the special teams unit. Another contributing factor was Utah going 11-for-14 on third down and keeping Oregon’s defense on the field. On offense, the Ducks had almost no rushing attack and managed a mere 63 yards combined on 23 carries.

It's kind of a mystery as to what is happening in Oregon because they have a great QB/RB combo in Anthony Brown and Travis Dye. The pair are just struggling a bit down the home stretch. Brown did manage to throw for 231 yards his last game against Utah but with only one touchdown. Brown is a dual-threat QB but had just eight yards on nine carries in that game. For reference, the game before he had 123 and the game after 83. Dye, meanwhile, who averages 5.8 YPC, had just 29 yards against Utah off six carries.

What makes Utah such an attractive option here is that the Utes have to correct nothing. They played a near-flawless game and just have to continue doing what they have been doing. This, needless to say, is a much easier task than trying to work out all the things that went wrong. Additionally, Utah had a much easier game last weekend, compared to Oregon who was in real danger of losing. 

Utah is led by Cameron Rising who has 2.109 passing yards and 17 touchdowns this season. While those are not amazing numbers, he ranks second in the nation in interceptions with just three. So, he's effective and very careful. This gives Oregon even less wiggle room.

Had the blowout game happened earlier in the season, I would be less harsh in judging Oregon based on it. But it was so recent that it is plausible that Utah has made very few adjustments in the two weeks in between games. The Ducks were busy with Oregon State and that didn’t even go entirely to plan. 

While Oregan might have a slight edge on the depth chart, the Ducks aren’t playing great football right now. Utah looks like a team working together and reading each other. I like the Utes' odds to win their first Pac-12 Championship on Friday night. 

Prediction: Utah -2.5 (-110)