Orioles vs. Astros Prediction and Odds for Friday, August 26 (Offense Wins Out with Bradish and McCullers Pitching)
By Josh Yourish
The Baltimore Orioles needed an 11th inning walk-off win to do it, but they took a three-game series with Chicago to win their third straight series. Baltimore is 65-59 and 2.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot.
The Houston Astros, on the other hand, do not have to worry about a Wild Card spot at all. They are 81-45, the best record in the AL ,and lead their division by 12.5 games.
Tonight this crucial series for Baltimore opens with Kyle Bradish on the mound facing Lance McCullers Jr. making his third start of the year. Who are we backing? We'll start with the odds before making our pick.
Orioles vs. Astros Odds, Run Line and Total
Orioles vs. Astros Prediction and Pick
Lance McCullers Jr. went six scoreless in his first start of the year, but last time out he surrendered three runs over five innings. While it looks like a promising return from injury, there are a few concerning signs you won’t see from a 1-1 record and 2.45 ERA.
McCullers Jr. has issued seven walks over 11 innings and has only struck out 11. His strikeout rate is slightly above league average, but his walk rate is 15.2%, which would be by far the highest of his career and is nearly double the MLB average.
While his ERA looks stellar, his expected ERA is 4.57 and his fielding independent pitching is 4.21. It is unclear if this regression will come now because it is a very small sample size, but he has not pitched as well as the numbers indicate.
Kyle Bradish is still worse than the worst version of McCullers. Bradish has a 6.25 ERA in 15 starts, his FIP is 5.14 and he has allowed three runs in each of his last three starts. Yet, somehow Baltimore is 9-6 in his starts. The offense comes to play on those days. In nine of his starts the team has scored six or more runs.
If regressions comes for McCullers and Bradish gives up his usual three, this game could go over by the fifth or sixth inning.
Pick: Over 8.0 (-115)
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