Betsided

Orioles vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Odds for Saturday, September 17th (Bradish Continues Stellar Stretch)

By Joe Summers

Kyle Bradish allowed three or fewer runs in each of his last nine starts
Kyle Bradish allowed three or fewer runs in each of his last nine starts / Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
facebooktwitterreddit

Several games behind the AL's final Wild Card spot, the Baltimore Orioles face essentially a must-win game against the Toronto Blue Jays this afternoon.

The Orioles are 7-2 in Kyle Bradish's last nine starts and need his best effort today. He's allowed three runs or fewer in each of those nine outings, compiling a 2.12 ERA thus far in September.

Toronto turns to José Berríos, behind whom its won five straight. Berríos has two strong outings against Baltimore this season, though his underlying metrics are subpar at best.

Which playoff hopeful can pick up a critical win? Let's check out the consensus odds before diving into the matchup:

Orioles vs Blue Jays Odds, Run Line and Total

Orioles vs Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

This game has a playoff feel to it in Mid-September. Both lineups are capable and each pitcher has mixed periods of dominance with woeful performances. That being said, I see clear value on both the Orioles and the under.

Kyle Bradish is on a heater. He's got a 1.44 ERA in his last four starts while surrendering just one home run in that stretch. That's a huge development for the 26-year-old righty, who gave up at least one home run in 13 of 15 starts prior. Toronto ranks just 22nd in OPS against right-handed pitchers at home in the last month, so Bradish should continue to find success.

José Berríos has pitched Baltimore well this season, but his MLB Statcast Pitching Profile still suggests he's mediocre at best:

The Orioles are stellar with their backs against the wall. They're 6-3 outright in their last nine games as road underdogs, while the Blue Jays are just 6-9 in their last 15 contests as home favorites. With Baltimore's bullpen advantage, I like the Orioles as underdogs here.

That being said, I can't ignore the value on the under either. It's 5-1-1 in Berríos last seven starts at home and hit in eight consecutive games in which Baltimore is a road underdog. As a cherry on top, it's 4-1 in Bradish's past five outings.

Back Baltimore to pull off a low-scoring win to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

Home/MLB Odds