Orioles vs. Cardinals Prediction and Odds for Wednesday, May 11 (Pitching Duel Gives Under Value)

The 13-17 Baltimore Orioles take on the 16-13 St. Louis Cardinals after winning the first game of this three-game set 5-3 yesterday. First pitch today is at 7:45 p.m. EST as the Orioles hope to win for the seventh time in eight contests.

They'll have a tall task against Cardinals' starter Miles Mikolas, who has been outstanding this season. He's allowed just four runs in his last five starts and owns a 1.53 ERA.

Baltimore will counter with Spenser Watkins and his 3.22 ERA. Watkins doesn't go deep into games but across five outings, he's only allowed two runs or fewer four times. His worst start was his most recent though, as he gave up three runs in four innings to the Twins.

Can Watkins bounce back to keep the Orioles' winning ways alive or will Mikolas and the Cardinals notch a victory?

Here are the odds from our friends at WynnBET Sportsbook to help us find some value in this Orioles vs Cardinals matchup:

Orioles vs Cardinals Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Orioles +1.5 (-110)
• Cardinals -1.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Orioles: +195
• Cardinals: -230

Total:

• 8.0 (Over -120/Under +100)

Orioles vs Cardinals Prediction and Pick

Perhaps I underestimated these Orioles. It's a beautiful May month and the birds are chirping, indeed. But the Cardinals' chirp is going to be louder than Baltimore's today. Spenser Watkins has performed well so far this season, but his underlying metrics imply the other shoe is going to drop soon.

Watkins has a 3.22 ERA but a 5.56 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), suggesting he's been lucky. Check out his profile from Baseball Savant and tell me regression isn't coming:

The Cardinals rank just 23rd in OPS against right-handed pitchers and have lost three straight, but they've certainly got the upper hand with Mikolas. He's in the 93rd percentile in hard hit percentage and 81st in walk rate, so he's limited threatening contact while maintaining control of his command.

Baltimore has the second-highest OPS against righty's this month, but if they can get to Mikolas then they might be legitimate. His 3.02 FIP does imply he's got some regression coming, but the Orioles have been winning more off the strength of their pitching staff despite some strong offensive numbers.

The under is 9-5 when the Orioles are a road underdog and 4-1 in their last five games overall. On the season, the under is 20-9-1 in Baltimore's games.

Those trends continue here as each starter is able to limit the damage enough to get things over to a pair of top-10 bullpens. Give me the under today.

Pick: Under 8.0 (+100)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.