Orioles vs. Cubs Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, July 12 (Don't Take the Bait, Fade Red-Hot Baltimore in Chicago)

The Baltimore Orioles are the hottest team in baseball.

I'll give you a second to blink, rub the crust out of your eyes and read that once more. The Baltimore Orioles are the hottest team in Major League Baseball.

Granted, the Seattle Mariners have won eight straight as well, but I give the edge to Baltimore playing in the toughest division in baseball. The last time Baltimore won eight consecutive games in a season was April 22 - May 1, 2005 in a lineup that included Miguel Tejada, Rafael Palmeiro, and Sammy "Friggin" Sosa!

Despite all the hoopla around the O's, they head into Chicago as slight road underdogs against a Cubs team that's lost four in a row. Perhaps Vegas knows something we don't?

Here are the odds from the North Side of Chicago for tonight's matchup over at WynnBET Sportsbook.

Orioles vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Orioles -1.5 (+150)
• Cubs +1.5 (-180)

Moneyline:

• Orioles +105
• Cubs -115

Total:

• 9 (OVER -125 | UNDER +105)

Orioles vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

I'm trying to get to the root of why Chicago is favored in this game, because this feels like an absolute trap set out by the oddsmakers to get the public on Baltimore.

Let's start with the pitching matchup. Right-hander Jordan Lyles (5-7, 4.50 ERA) goes for Baltimore tonight. His numbers aren't anything special, but despite his Fielder Independent Pitching (FIP) being lower than his ERA (4.15), his expected ERA (xERA) at Fangraphs is a full run higher (5.52).

His counterpart, Adrian Sampson, has yet to record a decision in six games (four starts) for Chicago, but he's been solid since joining the Cubs last season. He enters today's game with a 2.84 ERA in 57 total innings, despite entering this season as one of the worst pitchers in the league with every other team he's played for before Chicago,

Chicago's four-game losing streak also came on the road vs. the L.A. Dodgers; and they were in nearly every game in the series before falling apart. The worst of it came on Sunday afternoon, when Chicago blew two 5-run leads en route to an 11-9 loss.

A return home may just be what the doctor ordered for the Cubbies. Between Sampson's newfound success, as well as the Orioles coming into Wrigley with an 18-27 road record, I think Vegas is hinting at Chicago being the right side this evening.

PICK: Cubs ML -115

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