Orioles vs. Red Sox Game 1 Prediction and Odds for Saturday, May 28 (Baltimore Has Strong Underdog Value at Fenway)

Baltimore Orioles v Boston Red Sox
Baltimore Orioles v Boston Red Sox / Rich Gagnon/GettyImages

Two AL East teams in trouble go head to head this afternoon when the Boston Red Sox host the Baltimore Orioles. This is Game 2 of their five-game series and Game 1 of a Saturday afternoon doubleheader at Fenway Park. The Baltimore Orioles took Game 1 of this series on Friday night in a 12-8 slugfest under the lights. The Red Sox are now 1-3 SU against one of the worst teams in baseball.

Boston was let down by their bullpen after the O’s erased a six-run deficit over the final three innings of play. It was just the latest in a long line of failures for the Red Sox who currently sit in fourth place in the AL East while the Orioles are dead last. 

Here are the odds for this game, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook

Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, and Total

Run Line

  • Orioles: +1.5 (-120)
  • Red Sox: -1.5 (+100)


  • Orioles: +160
  • Red Sox: -190


  • Total 9.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Orioles vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

For whatever reason, as bad as they are, the Orioles continue to upset their fellow AL East rivals on a regular basis. They took two of three from the Rays last weekend and even took two games from the Yankees in the last 10 days. While those are not great numbers, after last night’s win, the O’s are 13-10 ATS against division opponents. 

The Orioles are hoping that Jordan Lyles can put them in a spot to take two in a row from their AL East rivals. While Lyle's numbers are not great with an ERA of 4.10 and WHIP of 1.35, I think he’s been the victim of some bad luck. Lyles has had to face the Yankees four times in his first nine games of the season. The Yankees are one of the most dangerous offenses in the league and have been raking over the last month. Lyles did start one game against the Red Sox and went six strong innings while giving up just one run and striking out six. He had similar results against the A’s and Royals. Basically, Lyles pitches well against bad teams and the Red Sox fall into that category. 

Meanwhile, the Red Sox are sending Nathan Eovaldi out to make his 10th start of the year for the Bosox. Eovaldi has settled down a bit after a dreadful start but still is hard to trust after posting a 6.41 ERA so far in May. He managed to hold the O’s scoreless earlier in the year but has not looked sharp since. He gave up six runs to the Astros recently in just 1 ⅔ innings of work. His strikeout numbers are strong but at -190, I see no value on the Red Sox today. 

The O’s, on the other hand, are +160 with a pitcher whose numbers are deceivingly bad. I think Lyles holds on and puts Baltimore in a spot to win on the road as solid underdogs. 

Pick: Orioles ML+160

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE