Orioles vs. Red Sox Prediction and Odds for Monday, May 30 (Expect Lineups to Struggle Early)

Rich Hill hopes to secure his first home win of the season
Rich Hill hopes to secure his first home win of the season / Adam Glanzman/GettyImages

The 23-25 Boston Red Sox and 20-29 Baltimore Orioles wrap up a five-game series tonight at 7:10 PM EST.

These clubs split the first four games, with the Red Sox lineup exploding for 12 runs yesterday. Boston sends Rich Hill to the mound in hopes of consecutive wins. The 42-year-old lefty has a 1-2 record and 3.86 ERA, but has struggled mightily at Fenway Park, amassing a 6.17 ERA in three outings.

Baltimore turns to Tyler Wells, who is quietly putting together an impressive season. Wells has a 3.65 ERA on the year and hasn't given up more than three runs since his very first start of the campaign.

Which squad has the upper-hand in this rare fifth straight battle? Can the Orioles upset Boston behind another strong outing from Wells or will Hill secure his first home victory of the season?

Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook as we analyze this Orioles vs Red Sox matchup:

Orioles vs Red Sox Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Orioles +1.5 (-130)
  • Red Sox -1.5 (+110)


  • Orioles: +152
  • Red Sox: -165


  • 10.0 (Over -110/Under -110)

Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction and Pick

We have to answer one critical question when evaluating this game: Whose bad is worse?

Let me explain. Tyler Wells is 0-4 with a 6.50 ERA on the road, while Rich Hill is 0-1 with a 6.17 ERA at home. So do we trust Wells to get his first road win or Hill to find his groove at home? I'm inclined to trust Wells, as his ERA is inflated by his first start of the year and the Red Sox haven't seen him yet, whereas the Orioles already faced Hill.

But Boston's lineup is much more dangerous than Baltimore's. They lead the MLB in runs per game and OPS in May, while the Orioles are 29th in OPS against left-handed pitchers this month. Advantage, Hill.

That being said, I can't help but trust Wells. He's walked only two batters in his last six starts and has an impressive 3.04 ERA in five road outings. I think he has tremendous potential moving forward, and his gigantic 6'8" frame makes him difficult for lineups to face.

I could see this game go either way, so instead of a side I'll favor the total. I expect Wells and Hill to find success early, but Boston's bullpen is admittedly terrifyingly bad. The first five total is set at 5.5 and that's what I'll target. In Wells' nine starts, the under is 7-2. With Baltimore's struggles against left-handed pitchers, I don't see them scoring many runs until Hill is out of the game.

As a result, I'll back the first five under 5.5 at +100. It's scary to fade Boston's lineup, but Wells is good enough to keep the score low while the Orioles lineup falters.

Pick: First Five Innings Under 5.5 (+100)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.