Orioles vs. Red Sox Prediction and Odds for Sunday, May 29 (Nick Pivetta Continues Stellar May)
By Joe Summers
After splitting the first two games of the series, the 22-25 Boston Red Sox host the 20-28 Baltimore Orioles in a rubber match at 1:35 p.m. EST today.
Bruce Zimmerman will start for Baltimore after giving up nine runs in his last two starts. He's done a great job chewing up innings and has a 3.78 ERA on the year, but his underlying metrics are concerning.
The metrics are concerning for Red Sox starter, Nick Pivetta, as well. But he's having a splendid month, posting a 2.23 ERA in May after compiling an 8.27 ERA in April.
Which pitcher has the edge? Will Pivetta continue his strong month or can Zimmerman get back on track? Perhaps the total has value instead of a side?
Let's answer these questions using the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook ahead of this Orioles vs Red Sox matchup:
Orioles vs Red Sox Odds, Run Line and Total
Run Line:
- Orioles +1.5 (-125)
- Red Sox -1.5 (+105)
Moneyline:
- Orioles: +165
- Red Sox: -180
Total:
- 9.5 (Over +100/Under -120)
Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction and Pick
After a relatively low-scoring game yesterday, I expect these lineups to find some success today, especially Boston's.
Bruce Zimmerman is putting together a fine season, but the cracks in his armor are starting to show. He's in the 12th percentile in expected batting average and 14th in expected ERA, and he gave up nine earned runs over his last two starts.
The Red Sox lineup is on fire and rank third in OPS against left-handed pitchers this month. They haven't lost consecutive games in more than three weeks and I don't see them doing so here.
Nick Pivetta's metrics overall are discouraging, but most of the damage came from a disastrous opening month of the season. He's started to find a groove in May, however, and has thrown a quality start in four straight outings. By not allowing more than five hits in any game over that stretch, he's done a tremendous job limiting run-scoring opportunities and has completely solved his command issues.
With the starting pitching advantage and such a strong lineup, I'll happily back Boston. The Orioles are 8-17 on the road and I expect the Red Sox to push them to 8-18.
Pick: Red Sox -1.5 (+105)
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.