Orioles vs. Reds Prediction and Odds for Saturday, July 30 (Mahle is Money at Home for Cincinnati)

The Baltimore Orioles are out to prove they're a Wild Card contender in the toughest division in baseball.

The squad predicted to lead Major League Baseball in losses at nearly every sportsbook in America is guaranteed to be at least .500 or better by the time July ends; sitting at 51-49 on the season.

They'll look to get their second win of the series in Cincinnati this evening when right-hander Dean Kremer takes the mound against Reds' veteran righty Tyler Mahle. This will be Cincinnati's first game since trading away their best starting pitcher, Luis Castillo to the Seattle Mariners on Friday night.

Here are the latest odds ahead of today's matchup from WynnBET Sportsbook.

Orioles vs. Reds Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Orioles -1.5 (+135)
• Reds +1.5 (-195)

Moneyline:

• Orioles -103
• Reds -107

Total:

• 9 (OVER -115 | UNDER -105)

Orioles vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

Baltimore may have the advantage in win/loss record, the better team overall, and the pitcher with nicer numbers, but I like Cincinnati to even the series this evening.

Reds starter Tyler Mahle is due for some positive regression. His ERA of 4.48 on the surface looks iffy, but according to Fangraphs, his expected ERA is actually 3.30; a +1.18 difference in his favor. Mahle actually ranks sixth amongst today's starters in wins-above-replacement, or WAR, and comes in with a solid K/9 of just under 10.

As for Kremer, while the 3.06 ERA looks sparkling, he's been the opposite of Mahle this year: extremely fortunate. His expected ERA is more than two full runs higher at 5.21, all while not missing many bats. The ball has gone where it's needed to go, and in return, Kremer and the Orioles have taken advantage.

With these odds as close as they are, I'll back the pitcher with the far better metrics in Mahle, and hope Cincinnati can hang on.

LEAN: Reds ML -107

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