The New York Yankees are streaking!
The Bronx Bombers are winners of three straight after sweeping the Cleveland Guardians at Yankee Stadium and look to stay hot when they welcome the last place Baltimore Orioles to town for the start of a three-game set.
It should be an entertaining pitching matchup at Yankee Stadium as Luis Severino hopes to continue his resurgent 2022 season. After pitching a total of 18 innings since 2018, Severino is back in the Yankees rotation and looking good with a 2.08 ERA and 14 strikeouts in 12 innings pitched.
He's opposed by Orioles' right-hander Jordan Lyles; another nice comeback story off to a solid start after leading the Majors in both earned runs and home runs allowed in Texas a season ago.
Here's the latest look at the odds via WynnBET Sportsbook.
Orioles vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line and Total
Run Line:
- Orioles +1.5 (+110)
- Yankees -1.5 (-130)
Moneyline:
- Orioles +225
- Yankees -265
Total:
- 8 (OVER -115 | UNDER -105)
Orioles vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick
While not surprising to see Baltimore at the bottom of the AL East in the early portion of the season; the Orioles have actually been one of baseball's best run line teams this year. Baltimore, despite their 6-10 win/loss record, is actually 10-6 on the run line this year. That's tied with the first place Seattle Mariners for third-best; trailing only two other first place teams in the L.A. Dodgers and New York Mets.
I also think Jordan Lyles has figured something out. He's done an excellent job of keeping the ball down so far in the early going; pitching to a ground ball rate of 50% through his first three starts. His expected weighted on-base-average (xwOBA) allowed, via MLB Statcast is .284. League average is right near .320.
While Severino has the far better ERA (2.08 to 3.52) to that of Lyles in the early going, the peripherals indicate some negative regression on the way for the Yankees right-hander. Severino's fielding independent pitching (FIP) numbers is actually closer to 5.10. This indicates he's been extremely fortunate with balls hit in play this year, hinting his ERA should actually be substantially higher. Lyles has also had some luck, but his FIP is 4.06; a much closer number to his 3.52 ERA this season.
The Orioles have already lost four games this year by just one run. As tempted as I am to jump on the moneyline in a winnable matchup, I'll take the plus-value in a spot they find themselves all too familiar (and so far successful) with.
LEAN: Orioles +1.5 (+110)
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