Orioles vs. Yankees Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, May 24 (Jordan Montgomery Finally Gets Win)

The New York Yankees host the Baltimore Orioles in the second game of a three-game series tonight at 7:05 p.m. EST.

These two American League squads have played competitive matchups all year long as the Orioles have proven a feisty underdog. As a result, each lineup has grown familiar with each pitching staff and we'll see a fun chess match as the year goes on.

Baltimore will send Bruce Zimmermann to face the Yankees for the fourth time already this season. Predictably, he's performed worse in each matchup, culminating in surrendering five runs on seven hits last week. Overall, Zimmermann has a 5.14 ERA in his three starts against New York.

Jordan Montgomery will also be facing Baltimore for the fourth time, though he's still seeking his first win of the 2022 season despite a 3.35 ERA. In his first three matchups with the Orioles, Montgomery compiled a 2.96 ERA while allowing only two walks in 15.2 innings.

Which familiar face will get the last laugh? Can Zimmermann reverse course and stifle the Bronx Bombers or will Montgomery finally get his first win of the campaign?

Let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to help answer those questions ahead of this Orioles vs Yankees divisional matchup:

Orioles vs Yankees Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Orioles +1.5 (+105)
• Yankees -1.5 (-125)

Moneyline:

• Orioles: +215
• Yankees: -250

Total:

• Total 8.0 (Over -115/Under -105)

Orioles vs Yankees Prediction and Pick

Last week's five-run outing against the Yankees was the first time all season Bruce Zimmerman surrendered more than three runs. That being said, his underlying metrics suggest he's been lucky to coast through the year mostly unscathed. Check out his profile from Baseball Savant:

It may go without saying, but the Yankees are not the lineup you want to face if you struggle to limit hard contact. Their percentile ranking in average exit velocity reads like the results from an easy math test:

Yankees' Percentile Ranking in Average Exit Velocity

• Aaron Judge: 100th

• Giancarlo Stanton: 100th

• Gleyber Torres: 94th

• Josh Donaldson: 89th

• Anthony Rizzo: 72nd

• DJ LeMahieu: 53rd

Yeah, that's pretty darned absurd. Zimmermann doesn't generate many strikeouts either, so he relies on batters putting the ball in play to record outs. It's a bad sign when your game plan revolves around the hardest hitting team in the league making contact with the baseball.

Jordan Montgomery, on the other hand, ranks in the 80th percentile in hard hit percentage and takes on an Orioles lineup that ranks 28th in OPS against left-handed pitchers this month. He's well overdue for a victory and should get one today.

So the Yankees have the better pitcher and lineup, but they also have a situational advantage. New York is dominant at home, going 12-3 over their last 15 with eight of those wins coming by multiple runs. Baltimore is a pathetic 5-14 on the road with 11 of those losses coming on the run line.

Back Montgomery and the Yankees to secure a convincing win as they continue to separate themselves from the rest of the American League East.

Pick: Yankees -1.5 (-125)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.