Overtime Record of NFL Teams That Win Coin Toss in Playoffs is Astounding

Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce celebrates after catching the go-ahead touchdown pass in overtime to defeat the Buffalo Bills.
Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce celebrates after catching the go-ahead touchdown pass in overtime to defeat the Buffalo Bills. / Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
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It's awfully difficult to find a substantial complaint to last weekend's NFL Divisional Round of playoff games, with every matchup being decided with a walk-off game winner.

Yet if fans are going to find something, and there's plenty who won't stop until they have something to rightfully complain about, the conversations surrounding the NFLneeding to change their current overtime rules is it.

The Kansas City Chiefs forced overtime after being down by a field goal with 13 seconds to play Sunday evening, but Patrick Mahomes completed two passes to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce for 44 yards to set up a Harrison Butker 49-yard field goal to force overtime.

The Chiefs won the coin toss and never looked back; going 75 yards on nine plays culminating with the game winning touchdown pass to Travis Kelce as Kansas City walked off Buffalo 42-36, covering the 2.5-point spread that closed at WynnBET Sportsbook.

Only problem? Josh Allen and the Bills never had a chance to touch the ball in overtime. The NFL's overtime rules conclude that a touchdown ends the game, but a field goal would negate the sudden death scoring. Did the Chiefs winning a random coin toss turn into an unfair advantage?


Was Bills-Chiefs the greatest NFL playoff game ever? BetSided's Ben Heisler, Peter Dewey and Reed Wallach debated Sunday's epic matchup and where it stands in history on a new "Bet & Breakfast" podcast:


How Much of an Advantage is Winning the Coin Toss in Overtime?

According to NFL Research, the current slate of rules for overtime have been played in 163 total games including the postseason. Teams that win the coin toss are 86-67-10; winning 52.8% of the time.

However, in the playoffs, it's a completely different story. NFL Network insider Ian Rapoport tweeted out that there have been 11 playoff games with the current overtime criteria. In the postseason, teams that win the coin toss are 10-1 straight up; and 70% of the teams who win the coin toss went on to score a touchdown on their first possession in overtime.

What Should the NFL Do to Fix This Rule?

While I was collecting different submissions for what the NFL can attempt moving forward, I keep coming back to this one particular idea that would make the strategy far more interesting.

There would still be a coin toss to determine who receives the ball first, but rather than ending the game on the first touchdown, a team must score eight points in overtime to win.

In this example, let's say the Chiefs and Bills are playing, and Mahomes finds Kelce for the first touchdown on the first possession in overtime. Do they kick the PAT and hope their defense makes a stand? Or, do they go for two to try and win it on that play and risk the possibility that if Buffalo scores in overtime, all they would need is an extra point to win it.

The debate will continue to rage on until the NFL makes a firm decision on what their overtime rules will hold. And even if they do change them to allow for both teams to have a possession, those who love the current format will express their dissent.

Either way, I will be campaigning for the 8-point overtime rule as the most unique way to fix this ongoing issue.


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