Pacers vs. Bucks Opening Series Odds, Prediction and Pick (Indiana Live for Upset?)

Are the Milwaukee Bucks in trouble? 

There reportedly is some serious doubt that Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf strain) will be ready for Game 1 of the playoffs against the Indiana Pacers, a bad sign for the Bucks’ chances to advance to the second round.

Antetokounmpo went down in the final week of the regular season, and the Bucks slipped behind the New York Knicks in the standings in the process. Milwaukee is still third in the odds to win the NBA Finals, but fans saw the Bucks lose in five games in the first round of the playoffs last season against the Miami Heat with Giannis banged up. 

Meanwhile, the Indiana Pacers come into the playoffs red hot, ranking No. 2 in the NBA in net rating in their last 15 games. Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam and company won’t be an easy out for any team – especially a banged up Bucks squad that is significantly worse without Giannis in action. 

Here’s a look at the odds for this first-round series, as well as my breakdown and bet for the winner: 

Pacers vs. Bucks Series Odds

• Milwaukee Bucks: -180
• Indiana Pacers: +145

Pacers vs. Bucks Series Exact Outcome Odds

• Bucks in seven games: +280
• Bucks in six games: +425
• Pacers in six games: +475
• Bucks in five games: +475
• Pacers in seven games: +750
• Pacers in five games: +1000
• Pacers in four games: +1100
• Bucks in four games: +1100

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Pacers vs. Bucks Series Prediction and Pick

These teams matched up five times in the regular season, and the Pacers went 5-1, only losing on Dec. 13. However, there hasn’t been a matchup in this series since early January, so we could see a much different look on both sides this postseason. 

Still, I think we’re giving the Bucks way too much credit since we don’t know what Giannis’ status will be.

Milwaukee went just 4-5 without the star forward this season, and I can’t look past the absolute disaster that was last season’s first-round series against Miami. 

Now, the Pacers don’t have Jimmy Butler, but the Pacers have the play style to compete with this Bucks team. Both squads are top 10 in the league in pace, and the Pacers outrank Milwaukee in offensive rating.

While the Bucks have been a much better defensive team under Doc Rivers, what does that defense look like with an injured Giannis – or him simply not playing at all. 

Damian Lillard has been pretty inefficient (42.4 percent from the field, 35.4 percent from 3) this season, and I question him being able to carry this Bucks team with Giannis at less than 100 percent. 

Yes, Dame has his fair share of great playoff moments, but the Pacers may be the deeper team in his matchup. I’m going to take a shot on the underdog pulling off a first-round upset here. 

Picks: Pacers (+145), Pacers in six games (+475)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.