Padres vs. Cubs Prediction and Odds for Monday, June 13 (Value on Home Underdog)

Justin Steele has been impressive for the Cubs and is a pitcher to target moving forward
Justin Steele has been impressive for the Cubs and is a pitcher to target moving forward / Chase Agnello-Dean/GettyImages

The 37-24 San Diego Padres bring a modest two-game losing streak into Chicago to open a four-game series with the 23-36 Cubs tonight at 8:05 p.m. EST.

San Diego had won seven of eight prior to dropping their last two and will send Yu Darvish to the hill today. Darvish threw seven shutout innings against the New York Mets in his last start but has been terrible on the road, amassing a 5.82 ERA over six appearances.

Chicago will counter with Justin Steele, who brings a 1-5 record and 4.79 ERA into the contest. Steele has allowed three or fewer runs in all but two of his 11 outings and is coming off seven strong innings against the Cardinals in which he held St. Louis to one run.

Can Steele build off the momentum from last week to snap Chicago's six-game losing streak or will Darvish notch a solid performance on the road to get San Diego back on track?

To answer those questions, let's bring in our friends from WynnBET Sportsbook and take a peak at the odds ahead of this Padres vs Cubs matchup:

Padres vs Cubs Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Padres -1.5 (+125)
  • Cubs +1.5 (-150)


  • Padres: -127
  • Cubs: +117


  • 9.0 (Over -110/Under -110)

Padres vs Cubs Prediction and Pick

Justin Steele is a pitcher I'm looking to target the rest of the season. He had a brutal outing against the Cincinnati Reds a couple of weeks ago, but otherwise has improved throughout the season and looks like a legitimately good starter. Removing the Reds game, he has a 2.33 ERA since the start of May with impressive strikeout numbers.

San Diego is 19th in OPS against left-handed pitchers over the last three weeks and average over nine strikeouts per game on the road, a bottom-10 mark in MLB. The Padres have lost three of four as a road favorite and while the Cubs have been terrible of late, this is a good bounce-back spot.

Yu Darvish is a completely different pitcher on the road. There's just something about the friendly confines of San Diego that unlock his ability, but Wrigley Field and Chicago are not quite San Diego, and I expect his struggles to continue. Batters are hitting .286 against Darvish on the road compared to .134 at home, and he's struggled with command as well.

On the whole, there's a compelling case to be made Steele has been better than Darvish even including the latter's home success. Steele's expected ERA (3.38) is lower than Darvish's (3.94) and the Cubs actually rank fifth in OPS against right-handed pitchers over the last two weeks.

I think there's value on Chicago to snap out of their slump. A typical bettor would likely look at this line and say "Wow, the Cubs are terrible and the Padres are good. How is San Diego only -127?" But that's what oddsmakers want us to think. Roll with the home underdogs as Steele continues his ascension and Darvish's road warts come back to bite him.

Pick: Cubs (+117)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.