Padres vs. Giants Prediction and Odds for Monday, August 29 (Trust Rodón as Short Favorite)

Carlos Rodon has a 1.45 ERA over his last five starts
Carlos Rodon has a 1.45 ERA over his last five starts / Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

After an embarrassing 15-7 loss to the Royals yesterday, the San Diego Padres suddenly hold just a 1.5-game lead over Milwaukee for the final NL Wild Card spot.

Missing the playoffs entirely after acquiring Juan Soto, Josh Bell, Brandon Drury, and Josh Hader at the trade deadline would be a failure of catastrophic proportions, and the Padres find themselves as underdogs to the San Francisco Giants tonight.

Mike Clevinger takes the mound for San Diego after allowing two runs over six innings to Cleveland last week. He's been worse on the road than at home, and is at a considerable disadvantage to Carlos Rodón.

Rodón has a 1.45 ERA in his last five starts with 41 strikeouts over 31.1 innings. The Giants are 4-1 in his last five starts and he's got a spectacular 1.86 home ERA on the season.

Can San Diego avoid disaster with an upset win or will San Francisco keep its playoff hopes alive?

Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to help analyze this critical Padres vs Giants showdown:

Padres vs Giants Odds, Run Line and Total

Padres vs Giants Prediction and Pick

On the surface, this pitching matchup may not seem so lopsided. Carlos Rodón does have a 2.81 ERA, but Mike Clevinger's 3.59 mark is nothing to scoff at. However, once you take a closer look, it becomes obvious that Rodón gives San Francisco a massive advantage tonight.

Rodón is tied with Kevin Gausman for the most Wins Above Replacement (WAR) of any pitcher in MLB at 5.1. He's got an expected FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) below 2.75 in five of his last six starts and he's issued just two walks total over his previous five.

Clevinger, meanwhile, is like a gallon of milk left in the fridge too long. You may not notice the stench right away, but the warning signs are there. One day, you'll waltz into the kitchen overwhelmed by a horrifying odor that leaves you paralyzed in disgust. Here is Clevinger's expected FIP from each of his last three road starts:

  • 8/17 @ MIA: 8.48
  • 8/12 @ WSN: 6.98
  • 8/06 @ LAD: 6.89

That smells so bad we may just need to burn the whole kitchen down. Marco Gonzales has the worst expected FIP in MLB at 4.88, so Clevinger's recent numbers are alarmingly awful. The Dodgers have a good lineup, but the Marlins and Nationals do not, so his horrible performances are coming against both quality teams and bad ones.

I'll happily back Rodón at a short number. San Francisco is 12-3 in its last 15 games as a home favorite. Bank on that trend to continue as Clevinger flails while Rodón shines.

Pick: Giants (-124)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.